舆情传播、风险感知与投资者行为——基于系统模糊控制的视角  

Public opinion dissemination,risk perception and investor behavior:Based on system fuzzy control

作　　者：田婧倩 刘晓星[1] TIAN Jingqian;LIU Xiaoxing(School of Economics and Management,Southeast University,Nanjing 211189,China)

机构地区：[1]东南大学经济管理学院,南京211189

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2021年第12期3147-3162,共16页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71673043);国家社科基金重大专项课题(18VSJ035)。

摘　　要：大数据时代下,互联网和新媒体的迅速发展在加速网络舆情流动性的同时,通过增加投资者的模糊风险感知程度加剧了金融市场波动,给舆情传播的系统性监管带来难度.本文首次将物理学倒立摆模型跨学科应用到微观投资者行为系统的构建,并基于模糊理论对比不同策略下的系统稳定性控制效果,验证该模型在金融领域的可行性与可控性.选取2020年1月至6月的微博文本为实证分析数据,测度投资者行为的变化效率,检验了我国舆情传播通过投资者模糊风险感知对金融市场稳定性的控制效果.研究结果表明:1)理论上存在能够动态控制投资者行为系统稳定的舆情传播有效程度;2)舆情信息会跨市场影响不同金融市场上的投资者决策;3)我国政府主导下的舆情环境在面对重大突发事件时具有良好的稳定市场能力.The rapid development of the internet and new media in the era of big data accelerates the liquidity of public opinion on the internet and increases the vague perception of risk by investors,which intensifies financial market volatility.These have brought difficulties to the systematic supervision of public opinion dissemination.This paper applies the physics inverted pendulum model to the construction of micro investor behavior systems for the first time,and compares the system stability control effects under different strategies based on fuzzy theory,which verifies the feasibility and controllability of the model in the financial field.Wei bo texts from January to June 2020 are selected as empirical analysis data to measure the efficiency of investor behavior changes and then the control effect of public opinion communication on financial market stability through investors’fuzzy perception of risk in China is tested.The research results show that:1)In theory,there is an effective degree of public opinion dissemination,which can control the behavior of investors and the stability of the system dynamically;2)Public opinion information can influence investors’decision-making in different financial markets;3)In the face of major emergencies,the public opinion environment led by the Chinese government has the ability to stabilize the market.

关 键 词：风险感知 倒立摆系统 模糊逻辑控制 社交舆情传播有效性指数 DEA模型 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]