基于有限理性视角的网络舆情传播模型构建  

The Construction of Network Public Opinion Propagation Model Based on the Perspective of Bounded Rationality

作　　者：戴建华[1,2] 周斯琦 Dai Jianhua

机构地区：[1]南京理工大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210094 [2]江苏省社会公共安全科技协同创新中心,江苏南京210094

出　　处：《情报理论与实践》2022年第2期176-181,167,共7页Information Studies:Theory & Application

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“突发事件网民负面情感的模型检测研究”(项目编号:71774084);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目“江苏省社会公共安全优势学科项目”;江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目“有限理性视角的网络舆情传播过程研究”(项目编号:SJCX20_0141)的研究成果。

摘　　要：[目的/意义]探究个体决策的有限理性对于网络舆情传播的影响,从网民心理的微观层面来构建网络舆情传播模型。[方法/过程]以病毒动力学理论为基础,引入考虑个体心理参照点的前景理论,构建网络舆情传播模型,并求解模型的基本再生数,进行数值仿真对基本再生数的计算结果进行验证分析。[结果/结论]网络舆情传播扩散规模,与微博用户接触到的接触消极微博内容的比例β、相关舆情事件评论或转发中传达负面情绪的评论内容占比p、被感染网民的自愈率q等有密切关系。[Purpose/significance]To explore the influence of the bounded rationality of individual decision-making on the spread of online public opinion,and build a model of online public opinion propagation from the micro level of netizens’psychology.[Method/process]Based on the theory of virus dynamics,the prospect theory considering individual psychological reference points is introduced,the network public opinion propagation model is constructed,and the basic reproduction number of the model is solved,and the calculation results of the basic reproduction number are verified and analyzed by numerical simulation.[Result/conclusion]The scale of the spread of online public opinion,the proportion of Weibo users that have been exposed to negative Weibo content,the proportion of comments on related public opinion events or reposts that convey negative emotions p,the self-healing rate of infected netizens q etc.are closely related.

关 键 词：网络舆情 病毒动力学模型 前景理论 有限理性 基本再生数 

分 类 号：C912.63[经济管理] G206[社会学]