人工智能技术对就业的影响及趋势预测:基于北京市工业机器人安装量的数据  

AI’s Impact on Employment and Trend Forecast:Based on Data on the Installation of Industrial Robots in Beijing

作　　者：汪昕宇[1] 谢玉 彭莹莹[1] 何勤[3] Xinyu WANG;Yu XIE;Yingying PENG;Qin HE(Institute of Human Resources Management,Beijing Union University,Beijing 100023;School of Management,Beijing Union University,Beijing 100101;School of Labor Economics,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070)

机构地区：[1]北京联合大学人力资源管理研究所,北京100023 [2]北京联合大学管理学院,北京100101 [3]首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院,北京100070

出　　处：《中国人力资源开发》2022年第1期119-133,共15页Human Resources Development of China

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目(19AGL025);北京社科基金重大项目(18ZDA09);北京联合大学科研项目资助(XP202009)。

摘　　要：本文基于德国国际机器人联盟(IFR)统计的中国工业机器人安装量数据,利用回归模型分析检验了人工智能(AI)技术对北京市就业总量、从业人员工资水平、从业人员素质结构的影响。结果显示,北京市机器人安装量对于北京市的就业总量具有替代效应,对于从业人员的工资收入具有补偿效应,对于从业人员的素质提升则具有推动效应,而北京市三次产业增加值的增长会调节机器人安装量对就业总量的影响。运用灰色预测模型法,文章有效预测了2019-2030年北京市机器人安装量变化所引起的就业变化,并提出了相应的政策建议。Based on the data on the installation of industrial robots in China collected by the International Federation of Robotics(IFR) in Germany, the regression model is used to analyze and test the impact of AI technology on the total employment, the wage level of employees, and the quality structure of employees in Beijing. The results show that the robot installations in Beijing has a substitution effect on the total employment, a compensation effect on the wages of employees, and a driving effect on the improvement of the quality of employees. The increase in the added value of the three industries in Beijing will adjust the impact of robot installations on total employment. Using the gray prediction model method, effectively predict the changes in employment caused by the changes in Beijing’s robot installations from 2019 to 2030, and put forward corresponding policy recommendations.

关 键 词：AI应用 工业机器人安装量 就业状况 影响分析 趋势预测 

分 类 号：F426.67[经济管理—产业经济] F249.27[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程] TP18[自动化与计算机技术—控制科学与工程]