中国钢铁行业二氧化碳排放达峰路径研究  

China′s Iron and Steel Industry Carbon Emissions Peak Pathways

作　　者：汪旭颖 李冰[2] 吕晨 管志杰[2] 蔡博峰 雷宇 严刚 WANG Xuying;LI Bing;LV Chen;GUAN Zhijie;CAI Bofeng;LEI Yu;YAN Gang(Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning,Beijing 100012,China;China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute,Beijing 100013,China)

机构地区：[1]生态环境部环境规划院,北京100012 [2]冶金工业规划研究院,北京100013

出　　处：《环境科学研究》2022年第2期339-346,共8页Research of Environmental Sciences

基　　金：中国工程院战略研究与咨询项目(No.2021-HYZD-14);国家自然科学基金项目(No.72074154)。

摘　　要：钢铁行业是我国重要的CO_(2)排放源.作为典型的资源能源密集型产业,钢铁行业加快绿色低碳转型、尽早实现碳达峰并有效降碳,既是行业自身高质量发展的内在需要,也是支撑落实国家碳达峰、碳中和目标的客观要求.本文综合考虑经济社会发展、资源能源利用、工艺结构调整、低碳技术应用等因素影响,开展了基于情景分析的钢铁行业CO_(2)排放达峰路径研究,对不同情景下钢铁行业CO_(2)的排放趋势进行测算,识别钢铁行业CO_(2)减排的主要驱动因素,判断推动钢铁行业碳排放达峰的关键举措,为制定“双碳”目标背景下钢铁行业CO_(2)排放控制策略提供参考.测算结果表明,我国钢铁行业CO_(2)总排放量有望在2020—2024年期间达到峰值;行业CO_(2)总排放量峰值为18.1×10^(8)~18.5×10^(8)t,达峰后到2030年降幅将超过3×10^(8)t.研究显示,粗钢产量是决定我国钢铁行业碳排放能否快速达峰的关键,加大废钢资源利用、推进外购电力清洁化以及提高系统能效水平是2030年前钢铁行业实现碳排放达峰并有效降碳的重要途径.到2030年,粗钢产量降低、加大废钢资源利用、推进外购电力清洁化、提高系统能效水平以及氢能炼钢和二氧化碳捕集、利用与封存(CCUS)等前沿技术对钢铁行业CO_(2)减排的贡献率分别为11%~52%、34%~52%、7%~20%、5%~13%和2%~3%.The iron and steel industry is an important carbon dioxide(CO_(2)) emission source in China.As a typical resource and energy-intensive industry,accelerating low-carbon transformation and peaking carbon emissions is not only the high-quality development demand for the industry,but also the objective requirements for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality.Considering the influence of economic and social development,resource and energy utilization,process structure adjustment,low-carbon technology application and other factors,we carried out an integrated scenario study on CO_(2) emission peak path of the iron and steel industry by calculating the CO_(2) emission trends of the industry under different scenarios,analyzing the main driving factors of CO_(2) emission reduction,and identifying the key measures to promote the carbon emission peak of the iron and steel industry.The research results can provide support for policy making on carbon emission control of the industry under the target of carbon peak and carbon neutrality.Based on the calculation results of this study,the total CO_(2) emissions of the iron and steel industry in China may reach an inflection point in 2020-2024.The peak values of total CO_(2) emissions of the industry are about 18.1×10^(8)-18.5×10^(8)t.After reaching the peak,the total CO_(2) emissions of the industry may decrease by more than 3×10^(8)t by 2030.The assessment results indicate that the production of crude steel is the key factor to determine whether the carbon emissions of China's iron and steel industry can peak quickly.Meanwhile,increasing the utilization of scrap resources,promoting cleanness of purchased electricity,and improving the energy efficiency of the system are important ways for the industry to peak carbon emissions and achieve emission mitigation effectively before 2030.Based on our estimates,by 2030,the contribution of decrease of crude steel production,increasing scrap resource utilization,promoting clean electricity use,improving energy efficiency,and applyi

关 键 词：碳达峰 情景分析 排放预测 驱动力 控制路径 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]