区域水安全评价指标体系构建与应用  

Indicators system construction and application of regional water security

作　　者：邓捷铭 贾绍凤[1] DENG Jieming;JIA Shaofeng(Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所中国科学院陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《水科学进展》2022年第1期48-56,共9页Advances in Water Science

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2021YFE0103900);青海省重大科技专项资助项目(2019-SF-A4)。

摘　　要：水安全是耦合资源利用、环境保护、防灾等多维视角的复合概念。为提高水安全评价的系统完备性,避免各维度间概念重合,提升问题诊断的精确性,基于对水安全定义、内涵及评价维度的总结述评,构建了由数量充足性、水质符合性、可持续性、成本可承受性和防洪安全保证性5个评价维度构成的区域水安全评价指标体系,并结合专家群决策进行指标权重量化与数据标准化。该评价体系体现了资源安全中关于数量保障与可持续性保障的概念内涵,相比单纯利用资源禀赋指标评价水资源数量安全,更能科学辨析区域真实缺水原因;补充前人研究较少涉及的成本可承受性,保证了水安全内涵的系统完备性。以中国各省为例,结合聚类分析开展水安全评价的实例应用,评价结果较好地诊断了中国各区域主要水安全问题,符合中国现状,说明该评价体系具备较好的科学性与实用性。Water security is an integrated concept of multiple dimensions, including water resource utilization, water eco-environmental protection, water disaster prevention among others. In this paper, an evaluation indicator system of water security are constructed, focusing on five dimensions: water quantity, water quality, sustainability, affordability, and flood security. It is based on a summary and discussion of the definition, connotation, and evaluation of water security dimensions. We provide increased understanding of applicability and usefulness of water security evaluation systems, thereby avoiding content duplication or overlaps between different dimensions and promoting the accuracy of problem diagnosis. In doing so, we used a multi-expert decision-making method to quantify indicators weight and to standardize data. Compared with evaluating the water quantity security using indicators of water resources endowment alone, this evaluation system implies concepts of water demand and sustainable security that included in resource security, which is capable of analyzing actual reasons for water shortage. Affordability, which is seldom considered in previous studies, is supplemented to ensure system integrity of water security assessment. Finally, a case study of water security evaluation of China is carried out with cluster analysis. The main water security problems in each region of China were diagnosed well, which are in line with the current situation of China. This test indicates that the evaluation system is both reliable and practically applicable.

关 键 词：水安全 指标体系 评价 专家群决策 聚类分析 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]