长大货物多式联运网络风险传播动力学仿真  

Risk Propagation Dynamics Simulation on Multimodal Transport Network for Oversize and Heavyweight Cargo

作　　者：张英贵[1] 肖杨 雷定猷[1] 陆强 ZHANG Ying-gui;XIAO Yang;LEI Ding-you;LU Qiang(School of Traffic&Transportation Engineering,Central South University,Changsha 410075,China)

机构地区：[1]中南大学交通运输工程学院,长沙410075

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2022年第1期14-23,共10页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71971220,71771218)。

摘　　要：长大货物多式联运组织具有高风险特征,为掌握长大货物多式联运风险网络传播规律,提升联运网络的风险防控能力,统筹考虑长大货物多式联运特征及其风险传播的影响因素,分析长大货物多式联运网络风险传播过程,构造长大货物多式联运网络风险传播函数,分别建立不考虑时滞、考虑时滞和外部因素的长大货物多式联运网络风险传播模型,明晰其动力学传播过程。仿真结果表明:相比路径决策因子,装载加固因子对长大货物多式联运网络风险传播的影响更大,更安全的装载加固方案可有效抑制联运风险初期传播峰值;降低风险传播率,提高风险治愈率可有效控制长大货物多式联运网络风险传播的速率与规模;时滞的延迟程度对长大货物联运网络风险传播影响较为显著,呈非线性、正向相关关系;外部因素的随机干扰可在一定程度上弱化风险传播程度;在长大货物联运网络风险扩散平衡点失稳时滞前,及时采取适当措施能防止因风险失控导致的联运网络崩溃。Multimodal transport organization for oversize and heavyweight cargo has the characteristics of high risk.To uncover master the risk propagation law and improve the ability to prevent and control risks of the multimodal transport network for oversize and heavyweight cargo(MOHC),the overall consideration for the characteristics of MOHC and the influencing factors of risk propagation was used to analyze the risk propagation process.The risk propagation function for MOHC was constructed to establish the risk propagation modal without time delay and with time delay and external factors,respectively,so that its dynamic propagation process is clarified.The simulation results indicated that the loading reinforcement factor had a greater impact on the risk propagation of MOHC in comparison to the path decision factor and a safer loading reinforcement scheme could efficaciously reduce the initial risk propagation peak of MOHC;Reducing the risk propagation rate and increasing the cure rate could effectively control the risk propagation scale in MOHC;The degree of time delay had a significant effect on the risk propagation of MOHC,which is nonlinear and positively correlated;The random interference of external factors can weaken the propagation of risk to a certain extent;Before the risk diffusion equilibrium point in time of MOHC became unstable,appropriate measures could have been taken in time to prevent the MOHC from collapsing due to the uncontrolled risk.

关 键 词：综合运输 风险传播 动力学模型 长大货物 多式联运网络 时滞 

分 类 号：U15[交通运输工程]