基于多准则决策的万年县生态脆弱性研究  

Ecological vulnerability of Wannian county based on multi-criteria decision making

作　　者：陈理庭 蔡海生[1,2] 张婷 张学玲[1] 曾珩[3] 陈艺[1] CHEN Li-ting;CAI Hai-sheng;ZHANG Ting;ZHANG Xue-ling;ZENG Heng;CHEN Yi(Key Laboratory of Po-yang Lake Watershed Agricultural Resources and Ecology of Jiangxi Province/Development Research Center of Selenium-rich Agricultural Industry,Jiangxi Agricultural University,Nanchang 330045,China;Jiangxi Tourism and Commerce Vocational College,Nanchang 330100,China;Land Consolidation and Rehabilitation Center,Department of Land and Resources of Jiangxi,Nanchang 330002,China)

机构地区：[1]江西农业大学江西省鄱阳湖流域农业资源与生态重点实验室/江西农业大学富硒农业产业发展研究中心,南昌330045 [2]江西旅游商贸职业学院,南昌330100 [3]江西省土地开发整理中心,南昌330002

出　　处：《西南农业学报》2022年第1期226-234,共9页Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(31660140、31560150);江西省十三五社科规划项目(17YJ11);江西省高校人文社科规划项目(GL17113);江西省高校人文社科重点研究基地项目(2018-32);江西省土地开发整理中心项目(2019-026)。

摘　　要：【目的】科学评估县域生态脆弱性并揭示其时空分异特征,为国土空间生态修复、区域长远发展提供参考。【方法】基于SRP模型,采用综合指数法和有序加权平均(Ordered Weighted Averaging, OWA)法分别分析2005—2018年万年县生态脆弱性时空演变特征及不同风险水平下生态脆弱性结果,同时结合空间自相关分析,探讨其在空间上的集聚效应。【结果】① 2005—2018年万年县生态脆弱性呈现下降趋势,生态脆弱性指数均值由0.2633下降至0.1914,累积下降27.31%。区域生态脆弱性总体呈现"西北高—中部、西部低—东南高"的空间格局。② 2005—2018年,万年县生态脆弱性Moran’ I指数分别为0.504 848、0.680 825、0.742 960,呈现高度正相关关系,空间集聚进一步增强。33随着风险系数的增加,万年县生态脆弱性逐渐升高,决策者态度由乐观变为悲观。"生态持续型""生态不可持续型"情景下的生态脆弱性分别处于轻度脆弱(93.40%)、中度脆弱(59.37%)水平。④"维持现状型"结果趋近于AHP—熵权法评价结果,表明OWA方法在生态脆弱性研究中具有一定适用性。【结论】引入OWA方法进行生态脆弱性评价可以为决策者统筹社会发展和风险管控提供依据,为区域长远发展、分区治理提供不同的决策思路,辅助决策者进行较为全面的判断。【Objective】The present paper aimed to scientifically assess the ecological vulnerability of counties and reveal their spatial and temporal differentiation characteristics, so as to provide reference for the ecological restoration of national space and long-term regional development.【Method】Based on the SRP model, the composite index method and Ordered Weighted Averaging(OWA) method were used to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of ecological vulnerability in Wannian county from 2005 to 2018 and the ecological vulnerability results under different risk levels, respectively, and also combined with spatial autocorrelation analysis to explore its clustering effect in space.【Result】(i) From 2005 to 2018,the ecological vulnerability of Wannian county showed a decreasing trend, and the average value of ecological vulnerability index decreased from 0.2633 to 0.1914,with a cumulative decrease of 27.31%.The overall spatial pattern of regional ecological vulnerability is ‘high in the northwest-low in the middle and west-high in the southeast’.(ii) From 2005 to 2018,the Moran’ I index of ecological vulnerability in Wannian county was 0.504 848,0.680 825,and 0.742 960,showing a highly positive correlation and further enhancement of spatial agglomeration.(iii) As the risk coefficient increases, the ecological vulnerability of Wannian county gradually increases, and the attitude of decision makers changes from optimistic to pessimistic.The ecological vulnerability under the ‘ecologically sustainable’ and ‘ecologically unsustainable’ scenarios was at the level of mild vulnerability(93.40%) and moderate vulnerability(59.37%),respectively.(iv) The results of the ‘status quo’ approach are similar to the results of the AHP-entropy weighting method, indicating the applicability of the OWA method in ecological vulnerability studies.【Conclusion】The introduction of OWA method for ecological vulnerability assessment can provide a basis for decision makers to coordinate social dev

关 键 词：生态脆弱性 SRP模型 空间自相关 OWA方法 万年县 

分 类 号：X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学]