面向多重生态保护目标的广东省生态系统服务退化风险情景模拟  

Ecosystem service degradation risk scenario simulation for multiple ecological conservation objectives in Guangdong Province

作　　者：张子墨 姜虹 徐子涵 丹宇卓 叶玉瑶[3] 彭建[1,2] ZHANG Zimo;JIANG Hong;XU Zihan;DAN Yuzhuo;YE Yuyao;PENG Jian(Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes,Ministry of Education,College of Urban and Environmental Science,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;Key Laboratory for Environmental and Urban Sciences,School of Urban Planning and Design,Shenzhen Graduate School,Peking University,Shenzhen 518055,China;Guangdong Open Laboratory of Geospatial Information Technology and Application,Guangzhou Institute of Geography,Guangdong Academy of Sciences,Guangzhou 510070,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学城市与环境学院,地表过程分析与模拟教育部重点实验室,北京100871 [2]北京大学深圳研究生院城市规划与设计学院,城市人居环境科学与技术重点实验室,深圳518055 [3]广东省科学院广州地理研究所广东省地理空间信息技术与应用公共实验室,广州510070

出　　处：《生态学报》2022年第3期1180-1191,共12页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：自然资源部国土整治中心外协课题(2021-06-06)。

摘　　要：稳定、协调、可持续的生态系统服务供给是维持区域自然生命系统、保障区域生态安全的基础。面临生态系统所受的人为与自然干扰,有必要准确评估生态系统服务退化风险,揭示区域生态安全和可持续性提升路径。现有研究多叠加所有生态系统服务以评估生态系统服务退化风险,未能面向区域生态问题或生态需求对不同类型生态系统服务进行整合。研究提出面向多重生态保护目标的生态系统服务退化风险情景模拟框架,考虑广东省生物多样性保育、水资源安全、自然灾害防范等生态保护目标,选取代表性生态系统服务类型(生境维持、水源涵养、水质净化、土壤保持、洪水缓解、热带气旋缓解),基于不同典型浓度路径情景评估2018-2035年生态系统服务退化风险。结果表明,2018-2035年广东省生态系统服务供给空间格局基本稳定,尽管有所退化、空间异质性强。生态系统服务退化风险的情景模拟表明,面向生物多样性保育目标的生态系统服务退化高风险区位于珠三角的深圳市、佛山市和江门市,以及粤西和粤东地区的湛江市、茂名市和揭阳市;面向水资源安全目标的生态系统服务退化高风险区位于珠三角的深圳市、中山市和江门市,以及粤西与粤东地区的茂名市、揭阳市和江门市;面向自然灾害防范目标的生态系统服务退化高风险区位于珠三角的深圳市与江门市、粤西与粤东地区的茂名市、湛江市和揭阳市,是广东省生态系统服务退化风险防范的关键区域。面向多重生态保护目标,广东省生态系统服务退化风险应对策略应重视城市生态系统生物多样性保育,应加强对生态用地尤其是红树林的保护及恢复,应对流域进行分级管控,因地制宜开展面向多重生态保护目标的生态保护与修复工程,应积极采取气候变化相关干预政策,优选低资源消耗低生态影响的绿色�Stable,coordinated and sustainable supply of ecosystem services is the foundation for maintaining regional natural life systems and ensuring regional ecological security.Facing the human and natural disturbances to ecosystem,it is necessary to accurately assess the risk of ecosystem service degradation,and reveal the improvement path of regional ecological security and sustainability.However,existing studies mostly overlay all ecosystem services to assess the degradation risk of ecosystem services,and fail to integrate different types of ecosystem services in response to regional ecological problems or ecological needs.This research proposed a framework for ecosystem service degradation risk scenario simulation for multiple ecological conservation objectives.Considering three ecological conservation objectives of Guangdong Province with biodiversity conservation,water resources security and natural disaster prevention,representative ecosystem service types(habitat maintenance,water conservation,water quality purification,soil retention,flood mitigation,tropical cyclone mitigation)were selected.Degradation risk of ecosystem services for 2018-2035 was assessed based on Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios.The results showed that the spatial pattern of ecosystem services supply in Guangdong Province was basically stable from 2018 to 2035,although there was some degradation and strong spatial heterogeneity.Scenario simulation for ecosystem service degradation risks showed that high-risk areas of ecosystem service degradation for biodiversity conservation objective were located in Shenzhen,Foshan and Jiangmen in the Pearl River Delta,and Zhanjiang and Maoming in western and eastern Guangdong regions.The high-risk areas of ecosystem service degradation facing water resources security objective were located in Shenzhen,Zhongshan and Jiangmen in the Pearl River Delta,and Maoming,Jieyang and Jiangmen in the western and eastern Guangdong regions.The high-risk areas of ecosystem service degradation for natural di

关 键 词：生态系统服务退化风险 情景模拟 生物多样性保育 水资源安全 自然灾害防范 

分 类 号：X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学]