移动支付因素对现金供应的量化影响研究——基于倾向评分匹配的经济金融变量影响关系探讨  

A Study on the Quantitative Impact of Mobile Payment on Banknote Supply——Exploring the Equilibrium Relationship Based on Propensity Score Matching of Economic and Financial Variables

作　　者：赵凌 潘宇 ZHAO Ling;PAN Yu(The People’s Bank of China Chongqing Operations Office)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行重庆营业管理部,重庆401147

出　　处：《当代金融研究》2022年第2期53-68,共16页Journal of Contemporary Financial Research

摘　　要：现金作为现阶段我国基础货币供应量中最活跃部分,是反映经济金融基本运行形势的重要指标。本文运用倾向评分匹配和向量自回归方法,研究对现金供应量产生显著影响的相关经济金融因素,量化探讨与判别各因素间的相互因果关系和长期均衡关系,并使用重庆区域2011-2020年各类经济金融数据进行实证检验。研究发现:移动支付对现金供应具有明显的替代效应,国内生产总值、工业增加值、社会消费品零售额和住户存款等指标对移动支付替代效应具有持续影响;国内生产总值和社会消费品零售额均对现金的投放回笼具有明显的正向因果关系。最后,本文从货币当局的角度提出相应政策建议。Banknote,as the most active part of basic money supply at the present stage,is an important indicator reflecting the economic and financial operating situation.This paper uses Propensity Score Matching and Vector Auto-regression model to study the relevant factors that have a significant impact on banknote supply,and quantitatively discusses the mutual causality and long-term equilibrium relationship among the factors,and uses various economic and financial data series to conduct an empirical test.It is found that there is a significant substitution effect of mobile payment on banknote supply,while GDP,IVA,TRSCG and Household deposits continue to influence the substitution effect of mobile payment.The analysis finds that both GDP and TRSCG have a significant positive causal effect on the return of Banknote.Finally,the paper proposes policy recommendations from the standpoint of monetary authorities.

关 键 词：现金供应 移动支付 倾向性评分匹配 向量自回归 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]