气象灾害综合指数保险研究——以北京市棉花为例  

The Weather Disaster Comprehensive Index Insurance——Taking Cotton in Beijing as an Example

作　　者：于小兵 张琦 王旭明 YU Xiaobing;ZHANG Qi;WANG Xuming(School of Management Science and Engineering,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学管理工程学院,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《灾害学》2022年第1期18-24,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71974100);江苏高校哲学社会科学研究重大项目(2019SJZDA039);江苏省自然科学基金面上项目(BK21091402);江苏省青蓝工程优秀青年骨干教师项目(R2019Q05);江苏高校哲学社会科学项目(2020SJA0182);江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目(SJCX21-0384)。

摘　　要：气象指数保险作为最有前景的农业保险创新工具,在保障农产品收入、稳定农业生产和国民经济运行方面具有重要意义。该文提出了综合气象指数模型来设计棉花保险产品,通过主成分分析法结合熵权法构建综合气象指数,综合考量降水、气温、日照等气象指标对棉花生产的影响。相比单一气象指数模型,综合气象指数模型能够整合多种气象条件信息,提高农业气象灾害保险模型的精度。基于该模型,以1999—2016年北京市棉花作物为例进行保险设计,在综合气象指数模型框架下计算出该地区不同灾害等级下的棉花气象灾害指数保险的纯保险费率。As the most promising agricultural insurance innovation tool,weather index insurance is of great significance in ensuring the income of agricultural products,stabilizing agricultural production and operating of the national economy.This paper constructs a comprehensive weather index model for cotton insurance product design.The model uses principal component analysis and entropy weight methods to construct a comprehensive weather index.It comprehensively considers the influence of precipitation,temperature,sunshine and other weather indicators on cotton production.Compared with the single weather index model,the comprehensive weather index model improves the accuracy of the agricultural weather disasters insurance model by integrating multiple meteorological conditions.Based on this model,this paper takes the cotton crops in Beijing from 1999 to 2016 as an example for insurance design.The pure insurance premium rate of cotton weather disaster index insurance is calculated under different disaster levels in the region based on the comprehensive weather index model.

关 键 词：气象灾害 综合指数 保险研究 H-P滤波法 主成分分析法 熵权法 

分 类 号：F842[经济管理—保险] S162[农业科学—农业气象学]