灾害风险评估中区域经济暴露价值的估算研究——以青海省为例  

Estimation of Regional Economic Exposure Value in Disaster Risk Assessment:A Case Study of Qinghai Province

作　　者：黄承芳 李宁 张正涛[1] 王芳 刘峰贵 HUANG Chengfang;LI Ning;ZHANG Zhengtao;WANG Fang;LIU Fenggui(Academy of Disaster Risk Science,Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability,Qinghai Normal University,Xining 810008,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地理科学学部灾害风险科学研究院,北京100875 [2]青海师范大学高原科学与可持续发展研究院,青海西宁810008

出　　处：《灾害学》2022年第1期205-210,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究资助项目(2019QZKK0906,2019QZKK0606)。

摘　　要：地区资本存量作为经济暴露指标,其准确核算是科学判断和施行精准投资的重要内容,也是评估灾害风险的关键基础。综合我国灾害风险评估及地区资本存量研究数据缺乏的现状以及青海省的地区特点,采用永续盘存法,首次尝试在地级市部门级的精细尺度上估算2003—2019年青海省地级市资本存量价值的变化,并对结果进行验证。研究结果表明:①西部各项政策的实施成效显著,2003—2019年青海省资本存量价值增加超过14.1倍,“十二五”期间年增长率超过22.7%;②省内市间资本存量价值不均衡差异显著,西宁市资本存量价值为全省44.1%,是果洛州的19.8倍;③“玉树地震”的灾后恢复间接促进了玉树州资本存量价值的大幅提升,灾后2 a增加量超过5.2倍。通过对青海省和各市资本存量价值的分析,不仅明确了政策实施在地区发展的成效,也为青藏地区灾害损失风险评估提供了可靠的资本存量价值本底数据和方法支撑。As an indicator of economic exposure,the accurate calculation of regional capital stock value is an important content for scientific judgment and accurate investment,and also a key basis for assessing the risk of disaster economic loss.Due to the lack of data in the field of disaster risk assessment and regional capital stock estimation in China and the regional characteristics of Qinghai Province,in this paper,the perpetual inventory method is adopted to estimate the changes of capital stock value of prefecture-level cities in Qinghai province from 2003 to 2019 based on the fine-scale data of municipal sectors,and the results are verified.The results show that:①The implementation of various policies in the West China has achieved remarkable results.The capital stock value in Qinghai increased by more than 14.1 times in 2003-2019,and the annual growth rate during the 12th Five Year Plan period exceeded 22.7%.②The capital stock value in Xining is 44.1%of the whole province,which is 19.8 times of that in Guoluo.③The post-disaster recovery of the Yushu Earthquake indirectly promoted the significant increase of the capital stock value in Yushu,which increased by more than 5.2 times in 2 years after the disaster.By analyzing the capital stock value of Qinghai and its cities,this paper not only clarifies the effect of policy implementation in regional development,but also provides reliable background data and methodical support for disaster loss risk assessment in the Qinghai-Tibet region.

关 键 词：资本存量 灾害风险评估 青海省 地级市 永续盘存法 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5