基于ARIMA时间序列的四川省艾滋病趋势分析  

Trend analysis of AIDS in Sichuan Province based on ARIMA time series

作　　者：孙唯[1] 凌润 张瑶 张孟媛 粟小燕 杨长虹[1] 魏荣杰 SUN Wei;LING Run;ZHANG Yao;ZHANG Mengyuan;SU Xiaoyan;YANG Changhong;WEI Rongjie(Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Sichuan,Chengdu 610041,China;Chengdu Medical College,Sichuan,Chengdu 610500,China;Luxian Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Sichuan,Luzhou 646100,China)

机构地区：[1]四川省疾病预防控制中心,四川成都610041 [2]成都医学院,四川成都610500 [3]四川省泸县疾病预防控制中心,四川泸州646100

出　　处：《中国医药科学》2022年第3期42-46,共5页China Medicine And Pharmacy

摘　　要：目的分析2004—2020年四川省艾滋病监测数据,了解四川省艾滋病发病现状;构建ARIMA时间序列模型,描述四川省艾滋病报告发病数的时空流行病学分布特征,预测其短期内的变化趋势。方法收集2004—2020年四川省艾滋病报告发病资料,构建艾滋病发病时间序列ARIMA模型,分析艾滋病流行趋势并进行短期预测。结果四川省艾滋病报告发病患者主要集中在四川省西南区域,大多数病例集中分布于成都市及凉山州地区;四川省2004—2020年艾滋病报告发病人数持续增长,且增长幅度不断增大,全年呈上升趋势。结论ARIMA时间序列模型模拟的2021年四川省艾滋病发病数预测值与实际值基本符合,该模型能较好地对四川省艾滋病报告发病人数进行拟合和预测。Objective To analyze AIDS surveillance data in Sichuan Province from 2004 to 2020,to master the current incidence situation of AIDS in Sichuan Province,to describe the spatiotemporal and epidemiological characteristics of AIDS reported cases in Sichuan Province by constructing the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)time series model,and to predict the short-term trend.Methods The incidence data of AIDS reported in Sichuan Province from 2004 to 2020 were collected,and the ARIMA model of AIDS onset time series was constructed.The epidemic trend of AIDS was analyzed and the short-term prediction was carried out.Results The reported AIDS cases in Sichuan Province were mainly concentrated in the southwest of Sichuan Province.Most cases were concentrated in Chengdu and Liangshan.The number of reported AIDS cases in Sichuan had been increasing continuously from 2004 to 2020,and the growth rate had been increasing,showing a yearly increasing trend.Conclusion The predicted value of AIDS incidence in Sichuan Province in 2021 based on the ARIMA time series model is basically consistent with the actual value.The model can achieve a better fit and properly predict the number of reporte d AIDS cases in Sichuan.

关 键 词：艾滋病 ARIMA模型 时间序列 空间分布 短期预测 流行病学 四川省 发病数 

分 类 号：R512.91[医药卫生—内科学]