基于组合物种分布模型的黄河源区鹅绒委陵菜适宜生境及其对气候变化的响应  

Assessment of suitable Potentilla anserina habitat and its response to climate change in the source region of the Yellow River based on ensemble species distribution modeling

作　　者：张欣雨 朱泽群 袁雅欣 姬文翔 宋岑雨 陆洪伟 赵茜蕾 卞庆瑶 孙子墨 宜树华[1] 孙义 ZHANG Xinyu;ZHU Zequn;YUAN Yaxin;JI Wenxiang;SONG Cenyu;LU Hongwei;ZHAO Xilei;BIAN Qingyao;SUN Zimo;YI Shuhua;SUN Yi(Institute of Fragile Eco-environment,School of Geographic Science,Nantong University,Nantong 226007,Jiangsu,China)

机构地区：[1]南通大学脆弱生态环境研究所/地理科学学院,江苏南通226007

出　　处：《草业科学》2022年第2期254-267,共14页Pratacultural Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(31901393);大学生创新创业训练计划项目(202110304040Z);江苏省自然科学基金资助项目(BK20201439);草地农业生态系统国家重点实验室开放课题(SKLGAE201906)。

摘　　要：鹅绒委陵菜(Potentilla anserina)是多年生蔷薇科草本植物,在黄河源区分布较为广泛,是青藏高原主要的野生经济植物之一。目前鲜有在区域尺度上刻画鹅绒委陵菜空间分布格局的研究,没有适宜的大范围开展高精度观测方法是主要限制因素之一。本研究利用无人机路径规划和信息提取系统(FragMAP)于2018–2020年在黄河源区获取了>3000个观测样本(航拍照片)。基于高分辨率(0.55 mm)航拍照片,人工识别鹅绒委陵菜出现与否作为基础数据(即0,1型数据集),利用BIOMOD物种分布集成预测平台,结合气候、地形、土壤3类环境数据预测黄河源区鹅绒委陵菜的分布特征,并在气候变化背景下模拟2050年和2070年源区内鹅绒委陵菜的空间分布特征。结果表明:1)组合物种分布模型能降低预测的不确定性,较好地模拟黄河源区鹅绒委陵菜的空间分布特征。2)鹅绒委陵菜在黄河源区的潜在分布主要集中在中部和东南部,影响其空间分布的主要因子为年降水量和海拔高度。3)在未来气候情景下,黄河源区鹅绒委陵菜极适宜生境面积呈先增加后降低的趋势。本研究在区域尺度上刻画了鹅绒委陵菜分布特征,为高寒草地经济作物的合理管理与利用、特色农业经济发展以及黄河源区生态恢复和高寒地区的生态建设提供必要的理论和实践基础。Potentilla anserina is a herbaceous perennial plant within the family Rosaceae that is widely distributed in the source region of the Yellow River(SRYR),and is one of the main economically important wild plants growing on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau.To date,however,the spatial distribution of P.anserina has yet to be determined,which is primarily attributable to a lack of high-precision survey data and effective methods that are applicable at a regional scale.In this study,we propose a sampling method based on fragmentation monitoring and analysis with aerial photography(FragMAP)to obtain basic sampling data for species distribution models(BIOMODs).During the period between 2018 and 2020,we obtained>3000 observation samples(aerial photographs)in the SRYR,and manually identified whether P.anserina appears or not(i.e.,a 0,1 dataset)as the basic driving data.Combined with data obtained for the climate,terrain,and soil,we predicted the potential and future distributions(in the 2050s and 2070s)of P.anserina against a background of climate change.The findings are as followings:1)Use of an ensemble model can reduce the uncertainty of spatial distribution predictions for P.anserina in the SRYR.2)P.anserina is distributed primarily in the central and southeast regions of the SRYR,and the environmental factors having the most pronounced influence on P.anserina spatial distribution are annual precipitation and elevation.3)In the projected future climate scenarios,the proportion of extremely suitable P.anserina habitat in the SRYR initially increased,although subsequently underwent a reduction.In this study,we succeeded in modeling the potential distribution characteristics of P.anserina at a regional scale.These findings can provide the theoretical and practical bases necessary for the rational management and utilization of economically important crops in alpine grassland,the ecological restoration of the source area of the Yellow River,and the ecological reconstruction of alpine regions.

关 键 词：FragMAP 无人机 鹅绒委陵菜 BIOMOD 组合模型 

分 类 号：Q948[生物学—植物学]