变速恒频风力发电系统风速短期预测方法研究  

Research on Short-term Wind Speed Prediction Method of Variable Speed Constant Frequency Wind Power Generation System

作　　者：苏艳萍 田源 SU Yanping;TIAN Yuan(State Grid Ningxia Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Yinchuan 750001,Ningxia,China)

机构地区：[1]国网宁夏电力有限公司,宁夏回族自治区银川750001

出　　处：《电网与清洁能源》2022年第2期88-93,共6页Power System and Clean Energy

基　　金：宁夏回族自治区自然科学基金项目(202015469875)。

摘　　要：采用现有方法预测短期变速恒频风力发电系统的风速时,因未分析风力机的运行特性而导致无法准确预测系统的输出无功功率、输出有功功率和短期风速,且预测结果的平均绝对误差和均方误差大,为此提出变速恒频风力发电系统风速的预测方法。首先对风力机的运行特性进行分析,然后采用支持向量机回归算法构建风速预测模型,最后利用风速预测模型完成变速恒频风力发电系统风速的短期预测。实验结果表明,所提方法可准确地预测系统的输出无功功率、输出有功功率和短期风速,且预测结果的平均绝对误差和均方误差小,验证了所提方法的整体有效性。When the existing method is used to predict the wind speed of the short-term VSCF wind power generation system,the output reactive power,output active power and short-term wind speed of the system cannot be accurately predicted due to its failure to analyze the operating characteristics of the wind turbine,and the average absolute error and mean square error of the prediction results are also large.To this end,the wind speed prediction method of the VSCF wind power generation system is proposed in this paper.Firstly,the operation characteristics of the wind turbine are analyzed,and then the support vector machine regression algorithm is used to construct the wind speed prediction model.Finally,the wind speed prediction model is used to complete the short-term prediction of wind speed of the VSCF wind power generation system.The experimental results show that the proposed method can accurately predict the output reactive power,output active power and short-term wind speed of the system,and the average absolute error and mean square error of the prediction are small,which verifies the overall effectiveness of the proposed method.

关 键 词：变速恒频 风力发电系统 风速短期测量 运行特性 支持向量机回归算法 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]