中国农村能源消费碳排放区域非均衡性及驱动因素动态识别  

Regional Imbalance of Carbon Emissions from China’s Rural Energy Consumption and Dynamic Identification of Driving Factors

作　　者：张恒硕 李绍萍[1] 彭民[1] ZHANG Hengshuo;LI Shaoping;PENG Min

机构地区：[1]东北石油大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《中国农村经济》2022年第1期112-134,共23页Chinese Rural Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“驱动资源型地区高质量转型发展的智慧生态创新模式与路径研究”(编号:20BJY045);黑龙江省哲学社会科学规划项目“协同治理框架下的黑龙江省农村环境污染防治研究”(编号:19JYE257)的资助。

摘　　要：本文基于2000-2018年全国八大地区30个省份农村能源消费的碳排放测算数据,运用两权重配比变异系数及Dagum基尼系数分析农村能源消费碳排放的区域差异及贡献来源,通过核密度估计法分析农村能源消费碳排放区域非均衡的时空演化特征,利用自适应Lasso模型选取农村能源消费碳排放驱动因素并结合逐步回归与普通最小二乘法的参数估计结果进行比较。研究发现:2000-2018年中国农村能源消费碳排放的区域差异呈现先缩小后扩大的态势,动态演进过程中农村能源消费碳排放的空间非均衡发展程度不断加深,八大地区农村能源消费碳排放的主导类型存在差异性;全国视角下农村生产生活要素投入、农村人口发展规模、农村生活质量水平及能源消费水平等因素对农村能源消费碳排放产生不同程度的影响,地区视角下各类驱动因素对农村能源消费碳排放的驱动效果及影响作用具有时间及空间差异性。对此,农村地区碳排放管治过程中应明确“全国统筹、区域协调、地区专治”的管理思路,秉承“分地区、分时段、分类型”的分类管理方式,以地区碳排放水平划分减排的重点管理区域,以驱动因素的作用机制作为减排的管理导向,从而实现农村地区“生态承载—环境保护—经济增长”的绿色协调、高质量发展。Based on the calculated data of rural energy consumption carbon emissions in 30 provinces within eight regions of China from 2000 to 2018, this article analyzes the regional differences and contribution sources of carbon emissions of rural energy consumption by using two-weight ratio coefficient of variation and Dagum Gini coefficient, and analyzes the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of regional imbalance of carbon emissions of rural energy consumption by using the Kernel density estimation. The driving factors of carbon emissions of rural energy consumption are selected by using theAdaptive Lasso Model. It also compares the results with stepwise regression and ordinary least squares parameter estimation. It finds that the regional differences of carbon emissions from rural energy consumption in China from 2000 to 2018 show a trend of narrowing first and then widening. The spatial unbalanced development degree of carbon emissions from rural energy consumption deepens during the dynamic evolution, and there are differences in the dominant types of carbon emissions from rural energy consumption in the eight regions. From the national perspective, factors such as rural production and living factor investment, rural population development scale, rural living quality and energy consumption level have different degrees of impact on rural energy consumption carbon emissions. From the regional perspective, the driving effects and impacts of driving factors on rural energy consumption carbon emissions have time and space differences. Therefore, in the process of carbon emission governance in rural areas, the management idea of “national overall planning, regional coordination, and regional specialization” should be clearly defined, the classification management method of “by region, by time period, and by type” should be adhered to, the key management areas of emission reduction should be divided according to the regional carbon emission level, and the mechanism of driving factors should be taken as the

关 键 词：农村碳排放 区域非均衡性 能源消费 驱动因素 自适应Lasso模型 

分 类 号：F323.214[经济管理—产业经济] X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]