航空碳排放演化特征与地区经济关联性  

Relationship between Evolution Characteristics of Aviation Carbon Emissions and Regional Economic Development

作　　者：杜皓月 唐慧琳 丁叶[1] 王新华[1] DU Haoyue;TANG Huilin;DING Ye;WANG Xinhua(Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 211106,China)

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学,南京211106

出　　处：《综合运输》2022年第2期10-15,56,共7页China Transportation Review

基　　金：大学生创新训练计划项目(202010287025Z)。

摘　　要：近年来我国民航业快速发展,为地区经济增长提供了不可或缺的动力,但其带来的碳排放问题也不容忽视。本文建立模型计算2009-2016年粤港澳大湾区五大机场的碳排放量,用LMDI法对影响因素进行分解,回归拟合EKC曲线、建立脱钩模型,对大湾区机场群航空碳排放演化特征及地区经济发展关联性进行实证分析。研究结果表明:经济水平、能源强度、人口规模对航空碳排放起正向拉动作用,运输强度起反向抑制作用;航空碳排放量与经济增长总体表现为扩张负脱钩,但有逐渐转化为弱脱钩的趋势。据此提出优化航线网络结构、改进发动机等技术参数和加快地区经济发展的航空减排建议。In recent years,the rapid development of China’s civil aviation industry has provided an indispensable driving force for regional economic,but the carbon emission problem brought by it can’t be ignored.This paper calculated the annual carbon emissions of the five major airports in Greater Bay Area from 2009 to 2016,used LMDI decomposition method,fitted EKC curve and established decoupling model to empirically analyze the evolution characteristics of aviation carbon emission and the correlation of regional economic development.The results show that economic level,energy intensity and population size play a positive role in promoting aviation carbon emissions,while transport intensity plays a negative role;that the overall performance of aviation carbon emissions and economic growth is negative expansion decoupling,but it gradually decreases into weak decoupling.Based on above analysis,the suggestions of optimizing route network structure,improving engine techniques and accelerating regional economic development are put forward.

关 键 词：航空碳排放 LMDI分解法 库兹涅茨曲线 脱钩模型 

分 类 号：U238[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]