河南省人类活动净磷输入的时空变化与影响参数  

Spatio-temporal variation and the impacts from parameters analysis of net anthropogenic phosphorus inputs in Henan province

作　　者：马华 雷秋良[1] 杜新忠 闫铁柱 裴玮 张天鹏 李影 罗加法 周脚根 刘宏斌[1] MA Hua;LEI Qiu-liang;DU Xin-zhong;YAN Tie-zhu;PEI Wei;ZHANG Tian-peng;LI Ying;LUO Jia-fa;ZHOU Jiao-gen;LIU Hong-bin(Key Laboratory of Nonpoint Source Pollution Control,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;AgResearch Ruakura,Hamilton 3240,New Zealand;Huaiyin Normal University,Huaiyin 223300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所,农业农村部面源污染控制重点实验室,北京100081 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室,北京100101 [3]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [4]新西兰皇家农业科学院,汉密尔顿3240 [5]淮阴师范学院,江苏淮阴223300

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2022年第3期1318-1326,共9页China Environmental Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金区域创新发展联合基金项目(U20A20114);国家自然科学基金项目(41877009,31572208)。

摘　　要：为探究河南省人类活动净磷输入状况,基于河南省18个省辖市(县辖市)行政单元统计数据,利用人类活动净磷输入量(NAPI)模型,核算河南省1990、1995、2000、2005、2010、2015和2019年人类活动净磷输入量.结果表明:在时间尺度上,1990~2015年河南省NAPI整体呈升高趋势,2015~2019年略有下降,但一直高于全国平均水平,其年均增长率为2.86%;在空间尺度上,东部高于西部,并呈放射状向北、西、南逐渐减少,影响河南省NAPI的地市主要是周口市、许昌市、商丘市、濮阳市和漯河市,占河南省NAPI的47.05%;从NAPI结构上看,化肥施用量是河南省NAPI主要贡献因子,年均贡献率在85.78%,与NAPI呈高度相关性(R;>0.8),次要贡献因子为食品/饲料,其年均贡献率在10.63%,非食品磷的年均贡献率是2.56%;NAPI估算模型中各组分受参数影响最大的是食品/饲料组分,其受参数影响的变化范围为-23.48%~66.81%,其次是化肥组分,其受参数影响的变化范围为-1.76%~3.52%;在NAPI模型中占比越高的组分其参数敏感性越强,P;组分中所含参数的敏感性指数均高于P;和P;.In order to explore the status of net anthropogenic phosphorus input in Henan province, this study was based on the statistics data of 18 province-administered towns and used the net anthropogenic phosphorus input(NAPI) model to calculate the phosphorus flow in the province from 1990~2019. NAPI of Henan Province had an overall upward trend from 1990 to 2015 and a slight decrease from 2015 to 2019. However, the NAPI of Henan Province was always higher than the national average in China, with an average annual growth rate of 2.86%. On a spatial scale, the east was higher than the west, and gradually decreased in a radial pattern to the north, west,and south. The main cities that affected NAPI in Henan Province are the Zhoukou, Xuchang, Shangqiu, Puyang, and Luohe cities,accounting for 47.05% of the total NAPI in Henan Province. A detailed analysis demonstrated that phosphate fertilizer application was the main contributor to NAPI, with the average annual contribution rate of 85.78% that was highly correlated with NAPI(R2>0.8). The second and third most important sources were food/feed and non-food inputs, accounting for 10.63% and 2.56%, respectively.Furthermore, among the input components of the NAPI model, the net phosphorus input of food/feed was most affected by the parameters, where its variation ranged from-23.48% to 66.81%;The second input was fertilizers, which varied in a range of-1.76% to 3.52%, affected by the parameters;The higher the proportion of components in the NAPI model, the more sensitive their parameters are,and the sensitivity index of the parameters contained in the Pfer components is higher than that of P;and P;.

关 键 词：人类活动净磷输入量(NAPI) 时空变化趋势 流动人口 河南省 参数不确定性 

分 类 号：X171[环境科学与工程—环境科学]