2014—2019年贵阳市空气污染物与急救人次的时间序列分析  

A time series analysis of air pollutants and emergency visits in Guiyang, China, 2014—2019

作　　者：江美琴 张开菊[1] 晏云富 代华 张睿[1] JIANG Mei-qin;ZHANG Kai-ju;YAN Yun-fu;DAI Hua;ZHANG Rui(Department of Public Hygiene,Guiyang Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Guiyang 550003,China)

机构地区：[1]贵阳市疾病预防控制中心公共卫生科,贵阳550003

出　　处：《环境卫生学杂志》2022年第2期125-130,共6页JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL HYGIENE

基　　金：国家空气污染对人群健康影响监测项目。

摘　　要：目的探讨贵阳市空气污染物短期暴露对医院急救人次量的影响。方法收集贵阳市2014—2019年逐日空气污染物包括细颗粒物、可吸入颗粒物、二氧化硫、二氧化氮、一氧化碳、臭氧等平均浓度,日均气温、相对湿度和每日急救人次数据,采用时间序列分析方法的广义相加模型,建立单污染物模型及多污染物模型,以滞后天数最大效应值作为空气污染物对急救人次量影响的超额危险度,分析空气污染物对医院每日急救人次量的影响。结果2014—2019年贵阳市空气NO_(2)、SO_(2)、CO、O_(3-8 h)、PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)日平均浓度值分别为25.17、14.76、682.19、75.89、57.56、35.37μg/m^(3)。研究期间共收集某三级甲等医院急救病案记录57351份,平均每天急救人数为26例。单污染物模型显示,NO_(2)、SO_(2)、CO、O_(3)、PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)浓度每增加10μg/m^(3),引起急救就诊人次的超额危险度ER(95%CI)分别为4.36%(1.66%~7.14%)、3.24%(0.13%~6.46%)、0.17%(0.06%~0.28%)、1.28%(0.64%~1.94%)、0.56%(0.092%~1.04%)和0.81%(0.086%~1.55%)。在调整其他污染物的全污染物模型中,仅NO_(2)和O_(3)与急救就诊人次仍存在统计学关联,ER(95%CI)值分别为3.26%(0.38%~6.22%)和1.33%(0.63%~2.30%)。结论2014—2019年贵阳市空气污染物的短期暴露影响急救就诊人次量,其中NO_(2)和O_(3)的影响较大。Objective To investigate the influence of short-term air pollutant exposure on emergency visits in Guiyang,China.Methods Related data of Guiyang from 2014 to 2019 were collected,including daily mean concentrations of air pollutants(PM_(10),PM_(2.5),SO_(2),NO_(2),CO,and O_(3-8 h)),daily mean temperature,relative humidity and daily emergency visits.The generalized additive model in time series analysis was used to establish a single-pollutant model and a multi-pollutant model,and the maximum effective value of lag days was used as the excessive risk to analyze the effect of air pollutants on daily emergency visits.Results The daily mean concentrations of NO_(2),SO_(2),CO,O_(3)-8 h,PM_(10) and PM_(2.5) were 25.17,14.76,682.19,75.89,57.56 and 35.37μg/m^(3),re-spectively,from 2014 to 2019.A total of 57351 medical records of emergency visits were collected from a grade A tertiary hospital dur-ing the study period,with a daily mean number of 26 emergency visits.The single-pollutant model showed that for every 10μg/m^(3)in-crease in the concentrations of NO_(2),SO_(2),CO,O_(3-8 h),PM_(10) and PM_(2.5),the excessive risk of emergency visits were 4.36%(95%CI:1.66%-7.14%),3.24%(95%CI:0.13%-6.46%),0.17%(95%CI:0.06%-0.28%),1.28%(95%CI:0.64%-1.94%),0.56%(95%CI:0.092%-1.04%)and 0.81%(95%CI:0.086%-1.55%),respectively.In the multi-pollutant model with ad-justment for other pollutants,only NO_(2)and O_(3)-8 h were significantly associated with emergency visits,with an excess risk of 3.26(95%CI:0.38%-6.22%)and 1.33(95%CI:0.63%-2.30%),respectively.Conclusion Short-term exposure to air pol-lutants in Guiyang from 2014 to 2019 affects emergency visits,among which NO_(2)and O_(3)-8 h tend to have a greater influence.

关 键 词：空气污染 急救 时间序列分析 广义相加模型 

分 类 号：R122[医药卫生—环境卫生学]