基于改进灰狼优化支持向量回归的网络舆情预测  

Prediction of network public opinion based on improved grey wolf optimized support vector machine regression

作　　者：林玲 陈福集 谢加良[2,3] 李凤 LIN Ling;CHEN Fuji;XIE Jialiang;LI Feng(School of Economics and Management,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou 350108,China;College of Science,Jimei University,Xiamen 361021,China;Institute of Big Data Modeling and Intelligent Computing,Jimei University,Xiamen 361021,China)

机构地区：[1]福州大学经济与管理学院,福州350108 [2]集美大学理学院,厦门361021 [3]集美大学大数据建模与智能计算研究所,厦门361021

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2022年第2期487-498,共12页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71271056);福建省软科学基金(B19085);福建省教育厅项目(JT180263);集美大学数字福建大数据建模与智能计算研究所开放基金。

摘　　要：网络舆情发展趋势预测对政府相关部门的舆情监测与管控有非常重要的参考意义.针对网络舆情的小样本特性,同时考虑适用模型的时效性和准确度,本文提出一种基于佳点集方法初始化、非线性参数控制以及对引领狼赋权的改进灰狼优化支持向量回归(IGWO-SVR)的网络舆情预测模型,以"新冠肺炎"、"中国梦"等百度指数作为舆情数据样本进行了实证研究.对比实验结果显示,改进后的灰狼优化算法有较强的全局搜索能力、较快的收敛速度以及较好的稳定性.IGWOSVR网络舆情预测模型有较为突出的准确性与稳定性,能够为政府舆情管控部门提供较好的决策参考.The prediction of the development trend of internet public opinion is a very significant reference for monitoring and control of the network public opinion by the relevant government departments.On account of small sample characteristics of online public opinion and the needs for both accuracy and stability in the prediction model,in this paper,an improved grey wolf optimization algorithm(IGWO) based on the initialization of the good-point set method,nonlinear parameter control and the weighting of the leading wolf is proposed.Using IGWO to optimize the super parameters of SVM regression model,a network public opinion prediction model based on improved grey wolf optimized support vector machine regression(IGWO-SVR) is established.Empirical research is carried out with Baidu indexes such as COVID-19 as public opinion data samples.The experimental results of 12 test functions show that the improved grey wolf optimization algorithm has relatively strong global search ability,faster convergence speed and better stability.The IGWO-SVR model has relatively outstanding accuracy and stability in the prediction of the development trend of public opinion,which can provide better decision-making support for public opinion supervision department of government.

关 键 词：网络舆情 灰狼优化 支持向量机 佳点集 新冠肺炎 

分 类 号：C93[经济管理—管理学] TP18[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程]