住宅价格、居民消费与城镇化关系研究——基于PVAR的实证分析  

Research on the Relationship among Housing Price,Residents’Consumption and Urbanization——An Empirical Analysis Based on PVAR Model

作　　者：陈彤 盛宝柱 CHEN Tong;SHENG Baozhu(Anhui Jianzhu University, Hefei 230022,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽建筑大学经济与管理学院,安徽合肥230022

出　　处：《广东石油化工学院学报》2022年第1期85-90,共6页Journal of Guangdong University of Petrochemical Technology

基　　金：安徽省高校人文社科重点研究项目(SK2019A0665)。

摘　　要：以2005—2019年31个省市数据为样本,运用PVAR模型,实证检验了住宅价格、居民消费和城镇化自身及相互之间影响关系。结果表明:三者之间存在完整、连贯的互动关系。住宅价格上涨促进居民消费增加,居民消费增加提升了城镇化水平,住宅价格对城镇化水平的影响是正向的。城镇化水平提升有利于居民消费水平增长,居民消费增长促进住宅价格上涨,城镇化水平提升对住宅价格的影响是正面的。依据分析结果提出了住宅价格、居民消费以及推动城镇化发展的建议。To explore the relationship among housing price,resident consumption and urbanization,this paper uses panel information about thirty one provinces and cities from 2005 to 2019 to analyze the interaction between housing costs,resident consumption and urbanization relationship based on PVAR model.The results show that there's a whole and coherent interactive connection between the three.In general,the rise in housing price promotes the rise in household consumption(the impulse response function shows inhibition first and then promotion),and the increase in household consumption in turn raises the extent of urbanization.To some extent,the level of urbanization is influenced by housing price positively.Urbanization is conducive to the growth of residents’consumption level.At the meantime,the growth of residents’consumption contributes to the rise in housing price.For the impact of housing price,the promotion of urbanization is positive.

关 键 词：住宅价格 居民消费 城镇化 面板向量自回归 

分 类 号：F29[经济管理—国民经济]