产品伤害危机预期下的最优动态广告策略  

Optimal Dynamic Advertising Strategies with Presence of Probable Product-Harm Crisis

作　　者：王威昊 马德青 胡劲松[1] WANG Wei-hao;MA De-qing;HU Jin-song(School of Business,Qingdao University,Qingdao 266071,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛大学商学院,山东青岛266071

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2022年第2期204-216,共13页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71771129)。

摘　　要：企业在实际经营过程中不可避免的会遭遇产品伤害危机(Product-Harm Crisis),危机的发生会使商誉受到折损。因此,本文旨在研究当企业预期到可能会发生产品伤害危机时的动态广告策略。为此,首先利用随机到达过程刻画危机的发生,并在此基础上建立危机影响下的动态广告模型。其次运用贝尔曼动态规划原理得到了制造商和零售商在集中、分散以及成本分担决策模式下的最优广告和成本分担策略。最后通过对结果的研究分析可以发现:产品伤害危机的预期会改变供应链成员的时间偏好,使供应链成员更重视当前而不是未来的利润;当危机发生率以及商誉折损率增大时,制造商应减少危机前的广告投入;危机发生率以及商誉折损率会影响零售商危机前的成本分担策略,但影响的结果取决于双方危机前后边际利润的情况;成本分担策略依然能够提高供应链双方的广告投入,从而提高商誉、市场需求和双方的利润,最终实现帕累托改进。It is inevitable for any company to faceProduct-Harm Crisis which could inflict damage on goodwill.The deep causes of Product-Harm Crisis root in the design and production phases before the products are launched and cannot be changed or influenced by the firm.Therefore,it aims to explore the optimal dynamic advertising strategies when supply chain members envision the occurrence of Product-Harm Crisis by formulating a dynamic advertising model with the occurrence process of crisis.Using the Bellman continuous dynamic programming theory,the optimal advertising and cost-sharing strategies of both manufacturer and retailer under centralized,decentralized and cost-sharing pattern are obtained respectively.The main conclusions and managerial insight obtained from this paper are as follows:1)A probable Product-Harm Crisis will influence the optimal advertising strategies of both supply chain members and therefore the performance of the supply chain.For one hand,the hazard rateχand damage rateФcan exert negative effect on manufacturer’s strategy.Specifically,wheneverχorФincrease,the manufacturer should lower his pre-crisis ad investment in response.Because the manufacturer will optimize the total profit both form pre-crisis and post-crisis regime,a reduction in precrisis ad spending is deemed as countermeasure to the future loss.On the other hand,Product-Harm Crisis may affact the market ennvironment such as marginal profit,effect of ad et al.which also impact the ad decision of both manufacturer and retailer.Due to the shrinkage of expenditure on both national and local ad and the loss of marginal profit,the market demand and profit of supply chain are compromised.2)The retailer should take into consideration of the effect of Product-Harm Crisis and marginal profit of both supply chain members when determining his pre-crisis cost-sharing strategy.When the pre-and post-crisis marginal profit of manufacturer and retailer satisfyρ_(R2)ρ_(M1)-ρ_(M2)ρ_(R1)>0,the increase inχand decrease inФwill force the retaile

关 键 词：产品伤害危机 随机最优控制 动态合作广告 微分博弈 成本分担 

分 类 号：F224.3[经济管理—国民经济]