人口流动、空间溢出与经济收敛——基于长江经济带104个城市的检验  

Population Mobility,Space Spillover and Economic Convergence:Evidence from 104 Cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

作　　者：曾永明 ZENG Yong-ming(School of Economics,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang Jiangxi,330013,China)

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学经济学院,南昌330013

出　　处：《西北人口》2022年第2期42-53,共12页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学基金“长江经济带流动人口时空格局演变及其对区域均衡发展的作用机制研究”(18YJC790006);国家自然科学基金“邻里效应对流动人口相对贫困的影响机制与治理策略研究”(72064018);江西省教育厅科技项目“赣南革命老区农村空间贫困形成机制与脱贫空间格局优化研究”(GJJ170355);江西省社会科学基金“江西人口老龄化发展态势与养老政策体系优化研究”(18SH13);江西省高校人文社科基金“江西省人口老龄化发展态势评估与养老政策体系创新研究”(SH18205)。

摘　　要：人口流动究竟是缩小还是扩大区域发展差距尚且存在争议,既有关于人口流动与区域经济收敛关系的实证检验有不一致的结论。考虑到区域经济增长与人口流动均具有典型的空间属性,纳入空间效应后研究了长江经济带104个城市人口流动与经济收敛关系。主要结论是:(1)长江经济带及其上游、中游和下游城市的经济增长皆收敛。(2)人口流动对长江经济带城市经济增长具有显著的阻尼效应,但这限于直接效应,而间接效应、邻近效应及综合效应均为促进作用;实证表明考虑到空间效应后,人口流动与经济增长的关系变得复杂,需要改变对两者关系的单维度分析而转向多维度判别。(3)基于区域流动人口规模与人均产出水平的高度相关性,有理由认为人口流动对于促进经济增长和缩小区域差异有双重作用。(4)城市福利与流动人口切割的管理制度对地方政府是有利可图的,但对流动人口本身是权益与福祉的破坏,需要正视人口流动的重大历史作用与现实意义,加快流动人口治理与福利制度深化改革。Whether population mobility should narrow or expand the regional development gap is still controversial.There are inconsistent conclusions on the empirical test of the relationship between population mobility and regional economic convergence.Considering the typical spatial attributes of regional economic growth and population migration,this article studies the relationship between population migration and economic convergence in 104 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt after incorporating spatial effects.The main conclusions are:(1)The economic growth of the Yangtze River Economic Belt and its upstream,midstream,and downstream cities have converged.(2)Population migration has a significant damping effect on urban economic growth in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,but this is limited to direct effects,while indirect effects,proximity effects,and comprehensive effects are all promoting effects.Empirical evidence shows that considering spatial effects,population migration and the relationship of economic growth has become complicated,and it is necessary to change the one-dimensional analysis of the relationship between them and shift to multi-dimensional discrimination.(3)Based on the high correlation between the size of the regional migrants and the level of per capita output,the article argues that population mobility has a dual role in promoting economic growth and reducing regional differences.(4)The management system of urban welfare and migrants cutting is profitable for local governments,but it is damage to the rights and welfare of the migrants itself.It is necessary to face the significant historical role and practical significance of population migration,and accelerate the reform of migrants governance and welfare system.

关 键 词：流动人口 经济增长 空间依赖性 条件Β收敛 长江经济带 

分 类 号：F299.27[经济管理—国民经济]