基于模糊影响图的冬奥全球赛事突发危机事件风险评估  

Risk Assessment of Sudden Crisis Events in Winter Olympic Global Events Based on Fuzzy Influence Diagram

作　　者：苏鑫[1] 周义棋 杨宇轩 钟茂华[1] SU Xin;ZHOU Yiqi;YANG Yuxuan;ZHONG Maohua(Institute of Public Safety Research,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]清华大学公共安全研究院,北京100084

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（信息与管理工程版）》2022年第1期1-9,共9页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology：Information & Management Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2020YFF0305300).

摘　　要：为研究冬奥全球赛事突发危机事件的风险因素,满足冬奥赛事重点区域的防控需求,依据突发危机事件基本属性与相关文献的风险划分,从自然灾害、事故灾害、公共卫生事件、社会安全事件和意识形态5个方面选取36个风险指标构建风险评估体系,采用模糊影响图方法进行风险评估分析。结果表明:冬奥全球赛事突发危机事件风险属于中等偏高风险,风险防控的关键节点有事故灾害中的“公共设施与设备事故”;社会安全事件中的“经济安全事件”;公共卫生事件中的“传染病疫情”“食品安全”;舆情意识形态中的“文化因素”“社会因素”“政治因素”“传播技术因素”“专业因素”。舆情意识形态风险关键节点较多,需重点关注。In order to study the risk factors of sudden crisis events in the global Winter Olympic Games and meet the prevention and control needs of key areas of Winter Olympic Games,36 risk indicators are selected from the five aspects of natural disasters,accident disasters,public health,social security and consciousness according to the basic attributes of sudden crisis events and the risk division of relevant literature.The results show that the risk of sudden crisis events in the global Winter Olympic Games is medium to high,and the key nodes of risk prevention and control are"public facilities and equipment accidents"in accident disasters;"economic security events"in social security;"epidemic situation of infectious diseases"and"food safety"in public health;"cultural factors","social factors","political factors","communication technology factors"and"professional factors"in public opinion ideology.Among them,there are many key nodes of public opinion and ideology risk,which need to be paid more attention.

关 键 词：冬奥全球赛事 突发危机事件 模糊影响图 风险分析 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]