基于模糊神经网络模型的农业对外开放合作风险预警研究  

Study on An Early Warning of the Risk of Agricultural Opening-up Cooperation Based on Fuzzy Mathematics and Neural Network Model

作　　者：朱春江[1] 范郁尔 骆汝九[1] 许强[1] 朱荣[1] 吴成洲 吴瑶[3] 马文斌[4] ZHU Chunjiang;FAN Yuer;LUO Rujiu;XU Qiang;ZHU Rong;WU Chengzhou;WU Yao;MA Wenbin(Lianyungang Technical College Lianyungang,Jiangsu 222006;Lianyungang Agricultural And Foreign Economic Cooperation Center Lianyungang,Jiangsu 222000;Hohai University Nanjing,Jiangsu 210098;Chongqing Normal University,Chongqing 401331)

机构地区：[1]连云港职业技术学院,江苏连云港222006 [2]连云港市农业对外经济合作中心,江苏连云港222000 [3]河海大学,江苏南京210098 [4]重庆师范大学,重庆401331

出　　处：《现代农业研究》2022年第3期1-8,共8页Modern Agriculture Research

基　　金：江苏高校哲学社会科学研究重大项目部分研究成果(2019SJZDA033);连云港市第六期“521高层次人才培养工程”(2021);重庆市教研教改重点项目(172012);重庆市技术预见与制度创新项目(cstc2019jsyj-zdxwtA0038)。

摘　　要：针对目前农业对外开放合作风险预警研究较少状况,加之农业对外开放合作风险涉及到政治、经济、社会文化、管理、突发事件等众多因素,是一个非常复杂的非线性系统工程,尝试运用层次分析法确定指标权重,用模糊数学对指标数据运用隶属度函数处理,再以一级模糊向量作为神经网络模型的输入,通过神经网络模型对农业对外开放合作风险进行预警。神经网络的非线性处理能力使农业对外开放合作风险预警更加科学化,通过实证研究表明该综合方法是一种行之有效的风险预警方法。In view of the current situation of low-level research on the risk of agricultural opening-up cooperation,and the fact that the risk of agricultural opening-up cooperation involves many factors such as politics,economy,social culture,management and emergencies,which is a very complex nonlinear system engineering,this article tries to use analytic hierarchy process(AHP)to determine the weight of the indexes,uses fuzzy mathematics membership functions to process index data.Then the first-level fuzzy vector is used as the input of the neural network model,and the risk of agricultural opening-up cooperation is early warned through the neural network model.The nonlinear processing power of neural network makes the risk warning of agricultural opening-up cooperation more scientific,and this comprehensive method is an effective risk early warning method through empirical research.

关 键 词：层次分析法 模糊数学 神经网络 农业对外开放合作 风险预警 

分 类 号：F321.4[经济管理—产业经济] A[哲学宗教—马克思主义哲学]