基于森林碳汇阈值的江苏省旅游碳排放环境风险评价  

Environmental Risk Assessment of Tourism Carbon Emission in Jiangsu Province Based on Forest Carbon Sink Threshold

作　　者：涂玮 刘钦普 TU Wei;LIU Qinpu(School of Tourism and Social Management,Nanjing Xiaozhuang College,Nanjing 211171,China)

机构地区：[1]南京晓庄学院旅游与社会管理学院,南京211171

出　　处：《林业资源管理》2022年第1期86-94,共9页Forest Resources Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(20BJY201)。

摘　　要：基于森林碳汇构建旅游碳排放环境安全阈值模型,对旅游碳排放环境风险进行评价。研究结果表明,1)15年来,江苏省旅游碳排放总体呈现增长状态,表现为平稳增长—稳定增长—快速增长—大幅增长4个阶段,旅游碳排放从13.633×10^(6)t增长至129.365×10^(6)t,共增长了8.49倍。省内13个市域旅游碳排放的差异逐渐缩小,南京、苏州、无锡保持高碳排放,宿迁、盐城和淮安旅游碳排放强度增长较快。2)江苏省旅游碳排放环境安全阈值近15年来在1.579×10^(6)~11.460×10^(6)t之间变化,基于森林碳汇的环境安全阈值不断提升,平均值为0.659×10^(6)t;市域旅游碳排放环境安全阈值在1.605×10^(6)~11.833×10^(6)t之间变化,苏州、南京、无锡环境安全阈值最高,宿迁最低。3)江苏旅游碳排放环境风险15年来进入极为严重风险状态,经历了下降、徘徊、加速上升、平稳持续上升状态,总体呈现为“勺”型。省内13个市域环境风险差异持续缩小,环境风险区增多,由3个增加至10个,江苏省旅游碳排放环境风险演变和现状令人堪忧。Based on forest carbon sink,the environmental safety threshold model of tourism carbon emission was constructed to evaluate the environmental risk of tourism carbon emission.The results showed that:1)in the past 15 years,the tourism carbon emission in Jiangsu Province presented an overall growth state,which was characterized by four stages of smooth growth-steady growth-rapid growth-substantial growth.The tourism carbon emission increased from 13.633 million tons to 129.365 million tons,a total increase of 8.49 times.The differences of tourism carbon emission among 13 cities in the province gradually narrowed.Nanjing,Suzhou and Wuxi maintained high carbon emission,while Suqian,Yancheng and Huai′an saw rapid growth in tourism carbon emission intensity.2)The environmental safety threshold of tourism carbon emission in Jiangsu Province varied from 1.579 million tons to 11.460 million tons in the past 15 years.The environmental safety threshold based on forest carbon sink kept improving,with an average value of 0.659 million tons.The environmental safety threshold of tourism carbon emission in municipality level varied from 1.605 million tons to 11.833 million tons.Suzhou,Nanjing and Wuxi had the highest environmental safety threshold,while Suqian had the lowest.3)In the past 15 years,the environmental risk of tourism carbon emission in Jiangsu Province has entered the extremely serious risk state,experiencing a trend of decline,wandering,accelerating rise,steady and continuous rise,presenting a"spoon"type.The difference of environmental risk among 13 cities in Jiangsu Province continued to narrow,and the number of environmental risk areas increased from 3 to 10.The evolution and current situation of environmental risk of tourism carbon emission in Jiangsu Province is worrying.

关 键 词：旅游碳排放 森林碳汇 阈值 环境风险 江苏 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]