无锡市大气主要污染物PM_(2.5)对人群超额死亡风险评估  

Risk assessment on PM_(2.5) related excess mortality in Wuxi City

作　　者：张旭辉[1] 朱晶颖 朱迅 王琳[1] 张琦[1] ZHANG Xu-hui;ZHU Jing-ying;ZHU Xun;WANG Lin;ZHANG Qi(Wuxi Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jiangsu Wuxi 214023,CHINA)

机构地区：[1]无锡市疾病预防控制中心,江苏无锡214023

出　　处：《江苏预防医学》2022年第1期17-20,共4页Jiangsu Journal of Preventive Medicine

基　　金：无锡市卫健委中青年拔尖人才资助计划(BJ2020095、HB2020098)。

摘　　要：目的了解大气主要污染物PM_(2.5)对人群造成的超额死亡风险。方法收集2015—2019年无锡市户籍人口死因个案资料,采用广义线性模型(generalized linear models,GLM),在控制时间趋势、气象因素和星期几效应等混杂因素基础上,分析PM_(2.5)造成的超额死亡风险。结果 PM_(2.5)对非意外总死亡人数的影响存在滞后效应。对单日非意外总死亡PM_(2.5)滞后效应表现为逐渐缓慢升高趋势,在单日滞后3 d(lag3)时效应达到最大,滞后第3 d的PM_(2.5)质量浓度每升高10μg/m^(3),单日非意外死亡率增加0.2%,相对危险度(RR值)为1.002 (1.000~1.004);对累积非意外总死亡PM_(2.5)滞后效应表现为先升高后下降趋势,在滑动平均滞后3 d(lag03)时效应达到最大,累积滞后3 d的PM_(2.5)质量浓度每升高10μg/m^(3),累积非意外死亡率增加0.3%,RR值为1.003 (1.000~1.006),以上RR值均有统计学意义(P值均<0.05)。当PM_(2.5)参考质量浓度为35μg/m^(3)时,2015—2019年归因非意外超额死亡人数(95%CI)分别为161(9~320)、127(7~252)、91(5~181)、109(6~218)、80(5~159)人。结论无锡市大气中PM_(2.5)质量浓度与居民超额死亡风险显著相关。Objective to evaluate the risk of particulate matter(PM_(2.5)) in the primary pollutant in the atmosphere to excess mortality in Wuxi.Methods The death cases data were collected from 2015 to 2019 in Wuxi.The generalized linear model(GLM) was used to analyze the relationship between exposure of PM_(2.5) with excess mortality risk based on control of confounding factors such as time trend,meteorological and week day factors.Results The PM_(2.5) demonstrated hysteresis effect on the number of non-accidental death in Wuxi.For the single-day non-accidental death,PM_(2.5) hysteresis effect showed a slowly ascending trend;the lag3 effect was the largest,the relative risk(RR) of non-accidental death was 1.002(1.000-1.004) for every 10 μg/m^(3 )increase of PM_(2.5) mass concentration after 3-day lag clag03,the single-day non accidental mortality increased by 0.2%.For the cumulative death effect,PM_(2.5) hysteresis effect showed a trend of first increasing then decreasing;the lag3 effect was the largest,the RR of non-accidental death was 1.003(1.000-1.006) for every 10 μg/m^(3 )increase in PM_(2.5 )mass concentration after cumulative 3-day lag(lag03),the cumulative non accidental mortality increased by 0.3%.all above RR were statistically significant(all P<0.05).When the reference of PM_(2.5) mass concentration was 35 μg/m^(3),the death numbers(95%CI) in Wuxi from 2015 to 2019 attributed by non-accidental excess were 161(9-320),127(7-252),91(5-181),109(6-218) and 80(5-159),respectively.Conclusion The mass concentration of PM_(2.5) in the atmosphere in Wuxi is significantly correlated with the excess death risk of residents.

关 键 词：PM_(2.5) 质量浓度 时间序列分析 超额死亡 风险评估 

分 类 号：R122.2[医药卫生—环境卫生学]