我国住房市场健康度评价研究——基于全国35个大中城市的实证分析  

Research on Health Evaluation of Housing Market of China——Empirical Analysis Based on 35 Metropolises

作　　者：叶剑平[1] 郑伟汉 郎昱 施昱年[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学土地政策与制度研究中心、公共管理学院 [2]中国自然资源经济研究院、哈佛大学

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2021年第9期31-36,77,共7页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目成果(18XNB007)。

摘　　要：房价周期循环过程中扩张与收缩交替出现。为抑制市场过度扩张,我国自2003年正式开启对房地产市场的宏观调控,并首次提出"房地产市场健康"概念。房地产宏观调控的目标应是维持市场平稳健康发展。然而,有关房地产市场健康的定性与定量研究在国内一直没有受到广泛关注。基于此,本文提出建立住房市场的健康度评价体系,为验证所建评价体系的可用性,对市场宏观层面和价格、结构、速度、质量层面的健康状况分别进行了评价。结果表明:我国住房市场健康度与调控政策趋势具有一致性,本文构建的住房市场健康度评价体系具有合理性,以期为我国未来房地产市场政策调控和评价提供理论参考。Expansion and contraction alternate in the cycle of housing prices. Since 2003, China has officially started macro-control on the real estate market and put forward the concept of "real estate market health" for the first time. The goal of real estate macro-control should be to maintain the stable and healthy development of the market. However, qualitative and quantitative research on the health of the real estate market has not received widespread attention in China. Based on this, this paper proposes to establish a health evaluation system for the housing market. And in order to verify the availability of the evaluation system, the paper evaluated the market’s macro-level, price, structure, speed and quality levels of the health status separately. The result shows, the health of China’s housing market is consistent with the trend of regulation and control policies;the housing market health evaluation system constructed in this article is reasonable;it is hoped that this article will provide a theoretical reference for my country’s future real estate market policy regulation and evaluation.

关 键 词：住房市场健康 房地产市场宏观调控 住宅价格 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]