三种灾难形式下的园区应急避难规划研究  

Emergency Shelter Location Considering Multiple Disasters

作　　者：焦思童 张淑菁 秦圣奇 李登飞 陆一平[1] JIAO Sitong;ZHANG Shujing;QIN Shengqi;LI Dengfei;LU Yiping(School of Mechanical,Electronic and Control Engineering,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学机械与电子控制工程学院,北京100044

出　　处：《数学建模及其应用》2021年第4期55-63,共9页Mathematical Modeling and Its Applications

摘　　要：人员密集型组织机构应急避难场所规划是应急管理中首要解决的问题,对其进行规划具有极大的现实意义.以人员密集型组织机构园区为研究对象,统筹考虑火灾、地震和军事打击3种不同灾难形式以及工作、就餐和就寝3种典型时间段人员分布状态,在P-中心模型、P-中值模型和集合覆盖模型基础上,建立了一种以规划成本最小和疏散时间最短为目标的应急避难场所选址-路径优化模型.为了验证模型的有效性,以北京市某校园为背景进行实例分析,并使用商用求解器COPT进行了求解,得出了园区应急避难场所规划方案.结果表明,9种场景下模型的求解效果较好,能够为解决园区应急管理提供科学合理的灾害应急预案和与避难相关的校园布局改善建议.The emergency shelter planning of personnel intensive organization is the first problem to be solved in emergency management,and it is of great practical significance to plan it.This paper takes the personnel intensive organization Park as the research object,and considers the three different disaster forms of fire,earthquake and military strike,as well as the personnel distribution in three typical time periods of work,dining and sleeping,on the basis of p-center model,p-median model and set coverage model,an emergency shelter location route optimization model is established with the goal of minimizing planning cost and shortest evacuation time.In order to verify the effectiveness of the model,a campus in Beijing is taken as the background to analyze the case,and the commercial solver COPT is used to solve the problem.The results show that the solution effect of the model under the nine scenarios is good,which can provide scientific and reasonable disaster emergency plan and suggestions for campus layout improvement related to refuge.

关 键 词：管理科学 应急避难场所 多灾害设施选址 两阶段优化模型 

分 类 号：F272.3[经济管理—企业管理]