WOFOST模型在德州市的适用性研究  

The applicability research of WOFOST model in Dezhou city

作　　者：王萌萌 杨学斌 王吉顺[2] 来剑斌[2] WANG Meng-meng;YANG Xue-bin;WANG Ji-shun;LAI Jian-bin(Dezhou Meteorological Bureau,Dezhou 253078,Shandong,China;Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling,Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resources,Chinese Academy of Science,Beijing 100101,China)

机构地区：[1]德州市气象局,山东德州253078 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所生态网络观测与模拟重点实验室,北京100101

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2022年第5期160-164,共5页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：山东省气象局重点课题(2016sdqxz07);德州市气象局重点课题(2018dzqxzd05)。

摘　　要：WOFOST模型是世界粮食研究中心和荷兰瓦赫宁根大学共同开发的作物生长模拟模型,为评价其在德州市的适用性,采用2015—2016年的冬小麦生长观测资料对模型进行本地化,采用1981—2017年的逐日气象观测数据以及冬小麦产量数据验证模型在产量模拟中的适用性。结果表明,校准后的WOFOST模型对冬小麦生物量、产量及生育期的模拟效果较好,验证期茎干重、地上部分总干重以及产量的模拟值与观测值的RMSE分别为29.3、92.1、86.7 g/m^(2),NRMSE分别为13%、15%和14%,生育期模拟值与实测值的平均误差为4 d,可见WOFOST模型能较准确地模拟冬小麦的生长动态及产量形成,适用于德州市冬小麦生长模拟和产量预测。WOFOST model is developed by the Center for World Food Studies(CWFS)and Wageningen University.This research was aimed at evaluating the suitability of WOFOST model for Dezhou city.The model was calibrated to get localization parameters using the observation data in the year 2015,including biomass of winter wheat and daily light,temperature,and precipitation.And then it was validated by data in 2016.The suitability of WOFOST model for yield simulation was verified,using the yield observation data and daily weather data from 1981 to 2017.The results were as follows.The model had good simulation effect on winter wheat biomass,yield and growth period.The RMSE of the simulated and observed stalk biomass,total biomass above ground,yield were 29.3,92.1,86.7 g/m^(2),and the NRMSE were 13%,15%,14%,respectively.The simulation error of the growth period was no more than 4 d.It proves that corrected WOFOST model can accurately simulate the growth and yield of winter wheat in Dezhou.

关 键 词：WOFOST模型 参数校准 模型验证 冬小麦 德州市 

分 类 号：S512.1[农业科学—作物学] P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]