基于“压力-状态-响应”模型的土地生态安全评价及预测——以沈阳市为例  

Evaluation and Prediction of Land Ecological Security Based on PSR Model——Take Shenyang as an Example

作　　者：张楠楠 石水莲 李博 李红丹 李双异[1] ZHANG Nan-nan;SHI Shui-lian;LI Bo;LI Hong-dan;LI Shuang-yi(Shenyang Agricultural University,college of Land and Environment,Shenyang 110866,China;Natural Resources Affairs Service Center of Liaoning Province,Shenyang 110032,China;Shenyang Tianli Land Technology Co.Ltd,Shenyang 110000,China)

机构地区：[1]沈阳农业大学土地与环境学院,辽宁沈阳110866 [2]辽宁省自然资源事务服务中心,辽宁沈阳110032 [3]沈阳天力土地科技有限公司,辽宁沈阳110000

出　　处：《土壤通报》2022年第1期28-35,共8页Chinese Journal of Soil Science

基　　金：辽宁省教育厅科学研究经费项目(LSNJC201910)资助。

摘　　要：【目的】土地生态安全评价是土地高效利用的基础和核心,是进行土地生态安全预测与预警、区域国土空间规划的重要依据。沈阳市作为东北地区政治、经济、文化中心和交通枢纽中心,测算其土地生态安全价值,可为该区域生态文明建设提供理论依据。【方法】基于"压力-状态-响应"模型(P-S-R模型),从压力、状态和响应三个层次选取了15个评价指标构建沈阳市土地生态安全评价指标体系,结合熵值法计算各项指标权重,依据最终的综合指数来判定沈阳市2011~2018年的土地生态安全等级,并运用灰色系统GM(1, 1)模型来预测2019~2022年沈阳市土地生态安全态势。【结果】研究表明,沈阳市土地生态安全综合指数整体呈现波动上升的趋势,安全等级由临界安全水平上升到较安全水平;预测2019~2022年沈阳市土地生态安全态势,亦呈现逐步上升的趋势,但安全等级仍为较安全状态。【结论】本研究基于P-S-R评价模型构建的沈阳市土地生态安全评价指标体系,较好的反映了近10年来沈阳市土地生态安全状态,研究结果可为沈阳市土地资源可持续利用及区域可持续发展提供参考。[Objective] Land ecological security evaluation is the foundation and core of efficient landuse, and an important basis for land ecological security predictioon and early warning, and regional land and space planning.Shenyang city, as the political, economic and cultural center and transportation hub of northeast China, the calculation of its land ecological security value can provide a theoretical basis for the construction of ecological civilization in the region. [Methods] This paper built a land ecological security evaluation index system based on the Pressure-StateResponse(PSR) model and 15 evaluation indexes in terms of pressure, state and response. The gray system GM(1,1)model was used to predict the land ecological security situation from 2019 to 2022. [Results] The results showed that the comprehensive index of Shenyang’s land ecological security presents a fluctuating rising trend, and the safety level raise from the critical safety level to the relatively safe level. The land ecological security situation of Shenyang would gradually rise from 2019 ~ 2022, but the safety level would still in a relatively safe state. [Conclusion] The land ecological security evaluation index system of Shenyang city based on P-S-R evaluation model better reflects the land ecological security status of Shenyang city in recent 10 years. The research results can provide reference for the sustainable use of land resources and regional sustainable development of Shenyang city.

关 键 词：土地生态安全 P-S-R模型 熵值法 沈阳市 

分 类 号：S159.2[农业科学—土壤学]