基于SD模型的县域“绿水青山就是金山银山”发展路径研究  

Study on the Development Path of Two Mountains Based on the System Dynamics Model

作　　者：沈辉 董梦婷 高才慧 张清宇[2] SHEN Hui;DONG Mengting;GAO Caihui;ZHANG Qingyu(Party School of Central Committee of CPC(National Academic of Governance)Newspapers and Periodicals Office,Beijing 100089,China;Academy of Ecological Civilization,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou Zhejiang 310000,China)

机构地区：[1]中央党校(国家行政学院)报刊社,北京100089 [2]浙江大学生态文明研究院,浙江杭州310000

出　　处：《生态经济》2022年第4期210-216,共7页Ecological Economy

基　　金：中国工程院战略研究与咨询项目“面向2035年的美丽中国建设战略与实施路线图研究”(2021-XZ-15)。

摘　　要：“绿水青山就是金山银山”理论(以下简称“两山”理论)是我国生态文明建设的重要指导思想。将系统动力学模型与县域“两山”发展评价指标体系相结合,以工业主导型县域宁海县为例,分析其在过去10年的“两山”建设情况,并利用SD模型对“两山”发展进行了系统仿真,探明其今后的“两山”发展目标,分析影响“两山”发展的关键要素。研究表明:对于工业主导型县域而言,现阶段最重要的是提高水质监控力度以及降低低保人口比例;在模型中优化指标后预计到2025年宁海县“两山”发展水平可达0.869,比继续原发展模式提高了0.022;验证了将系统动力学模型与“两山”发展指数相结合以指导县域“两山”发展的可行性,该方法可为县域发展建设提供科学指导。The theory of “lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets” (called for short as the “Two Mountains” theory) is an important guiding ideology for ecological civilization construction.Combined the system dynamics model with the evaluation index system of county-level development of “two mountains”,it takes Ninghai County,an industrial leading county,as an example,and investigates its “two mountains” construction in the past 10 years.While a systematic simulation of the development of “two mountains” based on the SD model is established in order to ascertain the future development goals and to analyze the key factors affecting the development of “two mountains”.Results show that:for the industrial leading counties,the most important tasks at this stage are to improve water quality monitoring and reduce the proportion of the population living on minimum subsistence allowance.The evaluation level of “two mountains” is expected to reach 0.869 in 2025 with the optimization of the indicators,which is 0.022 higher than that under the original development model.The feasibility of combining the system dynamics model with the evaluation index for the development of “two mountains” to guide the development of “two mountains” in the county is verified,and the method can provide scientific guidance for the development and construction of counties.

关 键 词：“两山”发展 县域 系统动力学模型 系统优化 实施路径 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]