经济增长视角下的高等教育层次结构变化  

The Changes in the Hierarchical Structure of Higher Education from the Perspective of Economic Growth

作　　者：李立国 赵阔 杜帆 Li Liguo;Zhao Kuo;Du Fan(the School of Education,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学教育学院,北京100872

出　　处：《教育研究》2022年第2期138-149,共12页Educational Research

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究2020年度重大课题攻关项目“我国博士生招生和培养规模结构质量问题研究”(项目编号:20JZD051)的研究成果。

摘　　要：高等教育层次结构的变迁与经济发展水平密切相关。低收入国家在向高收入国家行列迈入的过程中,高等教育层次结构会发生较大变化,但这种变化并不是简单意义的上移,而是普遍呈现出"两头扩张,中部收缩"的结构特征。一方面,经济社会发展对高水平创新人才的需求要求扩大研究生教育占比;另一方面,随着高等教育扩张和毛入学率的提升,专科教育占比也会出现阶段性增加。人均GDP每增加1千美元,高收入、中等偏上收入、中等偏下收入以及低收入国家或地区的高等教育毛入学率分别提高0.81、3.88、7.07和7.00个百分点。在人均GDP 1万美元以上的国家(地区)中,人均GDP每提高1千美元,硕士生占比提高约0.06个百分点,博士生占比提高约0.04个百分点。因此,我国在从中等偏上收入阶段向高收入阶段迈进的过程中,专科教育占比会相对缩小,本科教育占比会相对扩大,研究生教育占比有更大的增长空间。The change of hierarchical structure of higher education is closely related to economic development. When low-income countries or regions step into high-income economies,the structure will change greatly,but the change does not simply indicate going upward,but features "expansion at both ends and contraction in the middle." The demand of economic and social development for high-level innovative talents requires a higher percentage of graduate education;with the expansion of higher education and a higher rate of gross enrolment,short-cycle higher education will occupy an increasing percentage periodically. An increase of 1,000 dollars in GDP per capita will lead to the increase of the gross enrolment rate in higher education by 0.81%,3.88%,7.07% and 7.00% in high-income,upper middle-income,lower middle-income,and low-income countries or regions,respectively. In a country or region with more than 10,000 dollars in GDP per capita,an increase of 1,000 dollars in GDP per capita will lead to the increase of the gross enrolment rate in graduate education and doctoral education by 0.06% and 0.04%,respectively. Therefore,when China moves from an upper middle-income country to a high-income country,short-cycle higher education,undergraduate education,and graduate education will occupy a decreasing percentage, an increasing percentage, and the highest percentage,respectively.

关 键 词：高等教育层次结构 高等教育毛入学率 研究生教育 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] G640[文化科学—高等教育学]