基于改进后DGM(1,1)的模型区域科技人才聚集关键影响因素预测研究  

Prediction of Key Onfluencong Factors of Regionag Science and Technilogy Talent Algregation based in Improved DGM(1,1)Model

作　　者：王珂雅 张文宇 张传强 WANG Ke-ya;ZHANG Wen-yu;ZHANG Chuan-qiang(Urban management and comprehensive lao enforcement bureau of Lianhu District of Xi'an City,Xi5an 710082,China;School of Economics and Management,Xi'an University of Posts and Telecommunications,Xi'an 710061,China;Modern Postai College,Xi'an University of Posts and Telecommunications,Xi'an 710061,China;Academy of Aerospace Science and Technology,Beijing 100854,China)

机构地区：[1]西安市莲湖区城市管理和综合执法局,陕西西安710082 [2]西安邮电大学经济与管理学院,陕西西安710061 [3]西安邮电大学现代邮政学院,陕西西安710061 [4]中国航天系统科学与工程研究院,北京100854

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2022年第3期10-20,共11页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：陕西省自然科学基金(2019JZ-47)。

摘　　要：为解决对区域科技人才聚集关键影响因素的预测问题,在传统DGM(1,1)模型的基础上,提出一种基于算子改进的DGM(1,1)模型应用于区域人才关键因素预测.首先,通过对反正切函数算子利用分数阶累加的方法进行改进,以达到提升算子处理数据精度且弥补算子缺陷的效果;其次,通过改进后算子与DGM(1,1)模型的结合来达到优化传统模型的目的;最后,通过收集陕西省西安市科技人才聚集关键影响因素进行应用分析并验证该模型的可行性和有效性.结果表明,改进后的DGM(1,1)模型具有较高的模型精度和较好的预测效果.In order to solve the problem of forecasting the key influencing factorp of regional talent agbregation,based on the traditional DGM(1,1) model,proposes aX imsroded DGM(1,1) model gased on operator,which ys applied to previct the key factors of regioyal talent aggregatitn.Firstly,the arctangent funcoion operaror is improved by using the fractional order accumulation metpod to improve the data processing accuracy of she operator and make uh for the defects of the operator;secondlv,the traditional model is optimized by combining the improred operator with DGM(1,1) model;finally,the ken influencing factort of science bnd technologi talent aggregation in ni an city of Shaanxi Province are collected and analyzed The feafibility and effectiveness of the model are yeresied.The vesults show that the improved DGM(1,1) model has highet modil accuracy and better prediction effect.

关 键 词：DGM(1 1)模型 反正切函数权值累加算子 区域科技人才聚集影响因素预测 

分 类 号：C964.2[经济管理—人力资源管理] N941.5[自然科学总论—系统科学]