房地产调控政策对商品住房价格影响研究--以全国29个大城市为例  

Influence of Real Estate Regulation Policies on Housing Transaction Price:Taking 29 Cities in China as Examples

作　　者：贺一舟 郭永沛 郭翰 冯长春[1] HE Yizhou;GUO Yongpei;GUO Han;FENG Changchun(College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100871;Beike Research Institute,Beijing 100085)

机构地区：[1]北京大学城市与环境学院,北京100871 [2]贝壳研究院,北京100085

出　　处：《北京大学学报（自然科学版）》2022年第2期317-325,共9页Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41771176);英国研究与创新项目(UKRI)全球挑战(GCRF)研究基金(ES/P011055/1)资助。

摘　　要：研究限购、限贷、限价和限售等4项房地产调控政策对我国29个大城市2016年2月—2018年5月商品住房价格的调控效果。采用政策打分法建立政策强度指标,构建固定效应面板模型,聚焦一线、二线两类不同规模的城市,分析政策的调控效果,通过传导机制分析政策的调控效应。研究结果表明,限购政策与限贷政策对两类城市可起到较好的调控效果,限价政策和限售政策对一线城市具有一定的调控效果,对二线城市效果不明显。因此,应坚持推行限购政策,并“因城施策”,准确地把握政策时效性规律。This paper studies the effects of four kinds of real estate regulation policies,including home buying restrictions(HBR),home loaning restrictions(HLR),home price restrictions(HPR)and home saled restrictions(HSR),on housing prices in 29 large cities in China from February 2016 to May 2018.The policy intensity index was constructed by policy scoring method,and a fixed effect panel model was constructed.The effect of policy regulation was analyzed by focusing on the first-tier and second-tier cities of different sizes,and the effect of policy regulation was analyzed by transmission theory.The results show that the HBR and HLR can play a regulatory effect on the first-tier and second-tier cities.The HPR and HSR have certain regulation effect on the first-tier cities,but the effect on the second-tier cities is not obvious.This paper argues that government should persist in carrying out the HBR,and release policy according to the city,accurately grasp the law of the timeliness of the policy.

关 键 词：房地产调控政策 商品住房价格 固定效应面板模型 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]