基于SEIR演化博弈模型的旅游公共危机演化与控制研究  

Research on the Evolution and Control of Tourism Public Crisis Based on SEIR Evolutionary Game Model

作　　者：祁凯[1] 彭程 QI Kai;PENG Cheng(School of Management, Harbin Normal University, Harbin 150025, China;School of Economics and Management, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001, China)

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨师范大学管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150025 [2]哈尔滨工程大学经济管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2022年第3期145-150,共6页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(21YJC630106)。

摘　　要：人为因素所致的旅游公共危机不断演化,会给地区旅游业带来巨大的冲击和潜在的威胁,良性控制与有效预防旅游公共危机已成为学者们关注的焦点。本研究基于传播动力学理论与演化博弈理论构建SEIR演化博弈模型,探究地方政府与旅游行业策略选择的博弈关系,以及双方主体不同行为决策下游客情感认知的演化路径,分析系统演化至良性稳定状态的过程与规律,以期为政府提供决策支持。通过仿真实验显示:旅游公共危机爆发后,地方政府与旅游行业的积极态度能够高效修复游客的负面情感认知,并防止旅游危机继续演化;地方政府利用罚款与非物质性处罚规范旅游行业行为,并通过政策补贴激励增加其选择规范经营决策的驱动力,同时建立严格的市场准入制度等,能够恢复旅游者信心以及修复旅游地形象,最终良性导控与有效预防旅游公共危机。The continuous evolution of tourism public crises caused by human factors will bring huge impacts and potential threats to the regional tourism industry.Good control and effective prevention of tourism public crises have become the focus of attention of scholars.This study builds a SEIR evolutionary game model based on the theory of communication dynamics and evolutionary game theory,explores the game relationship between the local government and the tourism industry’s strategic choices,and the evolution path of tourists’emotional cognition under the different behavioral decisions of both parties,and analyzes the evolution of the system to benign and stable The state process is in accordance with the law,in order to provide decision support for the government.The simulation experiments show that after the outbreak of the tourism public crisis,the positive attitudes of local governments and the tourism industry can efficiently repair tourists’negative emotional perceptions and prevent the tourism crisis from continuing to evolve;local governments use fines and non-material penalties to regulate the behavior of the tourism industry.Through policy subsidies and incentives to increase its driving force in choosing and standardizing business decisions,and at the same time establishing a strict market access system,it can restore tourists’confidence and restore the image of tourist destinations,ultimately benign guidance and control and effectively prevent tourism public crises.

关 键 词：旅游公共危机 传染病模型 演化博弈 危机控制 

分 类 号：C931[经济管理—管理学]