基于灰色模型的原油管道蜡沉积速率预测  

Prediction of Wax Deposition Rate in Crude Oil Pipeline Based on Grey Model

作　　者：樊成洋 王庆军[2] 付智豪 Fan Chengyang;Wang Qingjun;Fu Zhihao(College of Petroleum Engineering,Xi'an Shiyou University,Xi'an 710065,China;Dagang Petrochemical Company of China National Petroleum Corporation,Tianjin 300280,China)

机构地区：[1]西安石油大学石油工程学院,陕西西安710065 [2]中国石油天然气股份有限公司大港石化分公司,天津300280

出　　处：《山东化工》2022年第5期135-137,共3页Shandong Chemical Industry

摘　　要：基于灰色模型理论和建模思想,GM(0,N)模型可计算多个影响因素间相互作用的拟合和预测结果,建立GM(0,5)模型并与黄启玉模型进行误差对比分析,对原油管道蜡沉积速率进行预测。拟合出GM(0,5)模型蜡沉积速率平均相对误差为0.8855%,预测出GM(0,5)模型蜡沉积速率平均相对误差为15.0369%,精度都远优于黄启玉模型。对GM(0,5)蜡沉积速率的灰色参数分析,浓度梯度、温度梯度这两个影响因素对蜡沉积速率影响最大。结果表明:在原油管道蜡沉积速率的预测方面,GM(0,5)模型效果更佳。Based on the theory and modeling ideas of the grey model,the GM(0,N)model can calculate the fitting and prediction results of the interaction of multiple influencing factors.The GM(0,5)model is established and compared with the Huang Qiyu model for error analysis to predict the wax deposition rate of crude oil pipelines.The average relative error of the wax deposition rate of the GM(0,5)model is 0.8855%,and the average relative error of the wax deposition rate of the GM(0,5)model is predicted to be 15.0369%.The accuracy is far better than that of the Huang Qiyu model.For the gray parameter analysis of GM(0,5)wax deposition rate,the two influencing factors,concentration gradient and temperature gradient,have the greatest influence on the wax deposition rate.The results show that the GM(0,5)model is more effective in predicting the wax deposition rate of crude oil pipelines.

关 键 词：灰色理论 GM(0 N)模型 蜡沉积速率 蜡沉积影响因素 

分 类 号：TE832[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程]