股利分配、融资路径与资本结构调整速度——基于动态调整模型的NLS预测方法  

Dividend Payment,Financing Path and Capital Structure Adjustment Speed——Based on Dynamic Adjustment Model Predicted by Nonlinear Least Square Method

作　　者：邹燕[1] 白庆辉[2] ZOU Yan;BAI Qing-hui(Business School,Beijing Wuzi University,Beijing 101149,China;School of Business,Beijing Union University,Beijing 100025,China)

机构地区：[1]北京物资学院会计学院,北京市101149 [2]北京联合大学商务学院,北京市100025

出　　处：《中国流通经济》2022年第4期101-115,共15页China Business and Market

基　　金：北京市教育委员会科研计划项目“疫情背景下京津冀区域企业的并购行为研究:动因、溢价及经济后果”(SM202110037009)。

摘　　要：企业融资方式可以分为内源性融资和外源性融资,现金股利分配将影响企业内源性融资比例和外源性融资比例,同时融资比例与资本结构调整存在联动反应。将现金股利分配活动与融资行为嵌入资本结构动态调整模型,采用非线性回归方法检验股利分配行为、融资路径与资本结构动态调整的关系。研究发现,分配现金股利的公司资本结构调整速度更慢,债权融资和股权融资起到了优化资本结构的作用,但不同的融资路径对优化资本结构存在异化调整作用;当企业处于高杠杆运行水平时,股权融资对资本结构调整速度的异化作用被进一步放大;股利分配行为与企业融资策略之间或存在冲突关系,这会导致非效率的股利分配行为与非理性的融资行为。这种冲突关系将传递到资本结构层面,进而影响资本结构调整速度。因此,股利分配行为一般需要考虑经济周期、货币政策、通货膨胀等宏观因素的影响,还需要考虑企业生命周期、盈利状况、公司战略、投资需求、融资需求、法律因素、投资者偏好等众多微观因素的影响。鼓励盈利能力强、公司规模大、现金充足、财务风险可控的公司积极分红,主动分红,引领资本投资并重的新风向;逐步探索建立分红行为积分制,加强行业现金分红的自律能力,以促进自律分红、理性分红局面的形成;构建企业理性分配股利、理性融资的评价指标,探索与股利分配行为关联的行为冲突测试体系,确保股利分配行为和融资行为的真实性和有效性;持续修订并完善上市公司现金分红的规定,尤其是上市公司现金分红方面的信息披露规则,让投资者充分透视股利分配行为,发挥股价的信号传递作用,构建良好的股价反馈机制。The financing methods of enterprises can be divided into endogenous financing and exogenous financing. The amount of cash dividends affects the proportion of endogenous financing and exogenous financing,and there is a linkage reaction with the adjustment of capital structure. Therefore,the authors embed dividend distribution activities and financing behavior into the dynamic adjustment model of capital structure,and adopt nonlinear regression method to test the relationship between dividend distribution behavior,financing path and dynamic adjustment of capital structure. It is found that:companies that pay cash dividends adjust their capital structure more slowly;and debt financing and equity financing have an alienating adjustment effect on optimizing the capital structure. To be specific,when the enterprise is at a high leverage level,the alienating effect of equity financing on the speed of capital structure adjustment is further magnified,and dividend distribution behavior is inconsistent with enterprises’ financing strategy,which will lead to inefficient dividend payment or irrational financing behavior.And this relation will be transferred to the level of capital structure and affect the speed of capital structure adjustment. Concerning dividend payment behavior,we should consider the impact of such macroeconomic factors as economic cycle,monetary policy,and inflation;besides,we should also consider the impact of such microeconomic factors as enterprise life cycle,profit status,enterprises strategy,investment requirement,financing requirement,legal factors,and investors’ preference. We should encourage enterprises with strong capability for profit-earning,large scale,sufficient cash,controlled financial risk to be positive in dividend payment,lead the new trend of capital and investment,gradually explore the merit-based system for dividend payment behavior,strengthen the industrial self-discipline capability for cash dividend payment to promote the selfdiscipline and rational dividend payment,formulate

关 键 词：股利分配 资本结构 融资路径 调整速度 非线性回归 

分 类 号：F272[经济管理—企业管理]