人口老龄化与自然利率趋势——基于资金供求关系的视角  

A Look at Population Aging and the Natural Rate of Interest Rate from the Perspective of Supply and Demand for Capital

作　　者：娄飞鹏 

机构地区：[1]国家信息中心 [2]中国邮政储蓄银行

出　　处：《金融市场研究》2022年第2期1-8,共8页Financial Market Research

摘　　要：人口是长期中影响自然利率的一个重要因素,随着人口老龄化的发展,自然利率总体呈下降的趋势。这是由于,虽然老年人退休后收入减少、消费增加,但是面对将来要经历的人口老龄化,政府、用人单位会储备养老资产,个人在年轻时也会积极积累养老资产。不论采用何种形式,储备养老资产的过程最终导致资金供给的增加,而人口老龄化社会对资金的需求较少,供求综合作用下自然利率水平降低。对此,需要理性认识人口老龄化影响自然利率走势,多方努力做好个人养老资产积累,根据自然利率变化趋势做好宏观调控。Population is an important factor affecting the natural rate of interest over the long term,and with an aging population,the natural rate of interest will show a downward trend.This reflects the combined effects of a number of factors such as reduced incomes post-retirement and increased expenditures on items such as medical care.Over time,the setting aside of pension assets by government,employers and employees eventually leads to an increase in the supply of capital,though an aging society has less demand for fresh capital.The natural rate of interest will therefore decrease under the combined effects of supply and demand.In this regard,we need to clearly assess the impact of population aging on the natural rate of interest and strive to accumulate personal pension assets while taking macro-control measures to adjust to changes in the trend of the natural interest rate.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 自然利率 养老储备 养老资产 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学] F832.5