河南省2005-2020年14岁及以下儿童丙型肝炎疫情趋势及流行预测分析  

Trend and prediction of hepatitis C cases in children aged 14 years old and younger in Henan province,2005-2020

作　　者：李洁[1] 李宁[1] 张国龙 赵东阳[1] 刘洋[1] Li Jie;Li Ning;Zhang Guolong;Zhao Dongyang;Liu Yang(Institute for Prevention and Control of STD/AIDS,Henan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Zhengzhou 450016,China)

机构地区：[1]河南省疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病防治研究所,郑州450016

出　　处：《中华流行病学杂志》2022年第3期336-342,共7页Chinese Journal of Epidemiology

基　　金：河南省医学科技攻关计划(2018020520)。

摘　　要：目的分析2005-2020年河南省≤14岁儿童丙型肝炎(丙肝)疫情的时间序列特征,并通过有效的模型预测其流行情况。方法资料来源于中国疾病预防控制信息系统传染病报告信息管理系统2005-2020年河南省报告的≤14岁儿童丙肝个案,季节特征的时间序列分析采用趋势分解法,以季节指数表示季节趋势的显著程度,按月变化的长期趋势采用线性回归模型分析,建立差分自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型进行拟合。结果2005-2020年河南省共报告儿童丙肝病例5355例,当年报告病例季节指数的极差值<1,季节特征不明显。以2012年为界限,2005-2011年当年报告病例数的按月变化长期趋势呈上升趋势(0.351例/月),2012-2020年呈下降趋势(-0.474例/月)。对当年报告病例数和现存儿童病例数2个指标分别建模拟合,ARIMA模型拟合的2005年1月至2020年12月的预测值与实际值较一致,均方根误差、平均绝对误差百分比和平均绝对误差分别为10.240、10.558,35.566、0.659和6.688、7.156。模型对现存儿童病例数的预测值与实际值一致性较好。结论采用时间序列分析有助于了解河南省≤14岁儿童丙肝的流行特征,ARIMA模型用于河南省儿童丙肝的短期预测和动态分析,具有较好的应用价值。Objective To explore the time series characteristics of hepatitis C cases in children aged≤14 years old in Henan and predict their epidemic situation with effective model.Methods Hepatitis C reported data among children aged≤14 years old in Henan from 2005 to 2020 were collected from China information system for diseases control and prevention.Descriptive and time series analyses were used to demonstrate characteristics of time trend,decomposition methods were used to show the seasonality by using seasonal indices and the long-term trend by using a linear regression model.An auto-regressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model was established.Results From 2005 to 2020,a total of 5355 hepatitis C cases in children were reported in Henan,the seasonal index range of the hepatitis C was lower than 1,and no obvious seasonality characteristics was observed.The average of monthly incidence of 2005-2011 showed increase trend(0.351 case/month),and the incidence of 2012-2020 decreased(-0.474 case/month).The predicted reported case number of hepatitis C in children in Henan from January 2005 to December 2020 fitted by ARIMA model was consistent with the actual number,the RMSE of the number of reported cases in the current year and the existing number of children cases was 10.240,10.558,the MAPE was 35.566,0.659,and the MAE was 6.688,7.156,respectively.Conclusion Time series analysis on surveillance data is useful for the better understanding of the epidemic situation of hepatitis C in children aged≤14 years.ARIMA model can be used in the short-term prediction and dynamic analysis of the incidence of hepatitis C in children in Henan.

关 键 词：丙型肝炎 儿童 趋势 预测 时间序列分析 

分 类 号：R725.1[医药卫生—儿科] R181.3[医药卫生—临床医学]