典型国家与地区肉类消费特征及变化规律研究  

Characteristics and Change Law of Meat Consumption in Typical Countries and Regions

作　　者：秦越 李干琼[1] Qin Yue;Li Ganqiong(Agricultural Information Institute,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《农业展望》2022年第1期15-25,共11页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：中国农业科学院农业信息研究所基本科研业务费项目(JBYW-AII-2022-15);国家重点研发计划课题(2018YFF0213506);国家自然科学基金项目(71303238)。

摘　　要：近年来,随着经济不断发展和生活水平改善,居民食物消费结构转型升级加快,科学研判肉类消费变化趋势及峰值对增强中国农产品市场调控能力具有重要意义。经济发展水平和膳食结构模式是影响肉类消费的主要因素,因而进行肉类消费的国际分析可为中国提供借鉴与参考。以日本、韩国、中国台湾、欧盟、美国等国家和地区为例,比较分析了近60年来肉类消费特点与变化规律,实证研究了肉类消费与经济发展水平的关系,基于此预测了中国大陆肉类消费峰值。研究结果表明:随着经济发展水平提高,日本、中国台湾、欧盟、美国肉类消费变化均存在“先增长、后趋稳”规律;到达趋稳阶段后,肉类消费结构变化趋同,畜肉消费量近乎饱和,禽肉消费量快速增长;预测中国大陆人均肉类消费量于2028年达到峰值(70 kg),其中猪肉、牛羊肉、禽肉年人均消费量分别为40 kg、10 kg、19 kg,中国大陆肉类消费总量于2031年到达峰值(10300万t)。In recent years,with the continuous development of the economy and the improvement of living standards,the transformation and upgrading of residents’food consumption structure has accelerated.Scientific research and judgment of the changing trends and peaks of meat consumption is of great significance to enhance the ability of regulating and controlling China’s agricultural products market.The level of economic development and the pattern of dietary structure are the main factors affecting meat consumption,so the analysis of international meat consumption can provide a reference for China.Taking Japan,Korea,Taiwan of China,the European Union,and the United States as examples,the characteristics and changing laws of meat consumption in the past 60 years were comparatively analyzed,and the relationship between meat consumption and the level of economic development was empirically studied,and based on this,the peak of meat consumption in China’s mainland was forecasted.The results showed that:with the improvement of economic development level,meat consumption changes in Japan,Taiwan of China,the European Union,and the United States all had the law of first increasing and then stabilizing;after reaching the stabilization stage,the changes of meat consumption structure tended to be the same,the consumption of livestock meat was almost saturated,and the consumption of poultry meat increased rapidly;per capita meat consumption of China’s mainland would reach its peak in 2028(70 kilograms),of which the annual per capita consumption of pork,beef and mutton,and poultry would be 40 kilograms,10 kilograms,19 kilograms respectively,and the total meat consumption of China’s mainland would reach its peak in 2031(103 million tons).

关 键 词：典型国家与地区 肉类消费量 经济发展水平 消费结构 肉类消费峰值 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济] F126.1