碳中和目标下我国能源发展战略思考  

Thinking of China’s Energy Development Strategy under Carbon Neutrality Goal

作　　者：戴厚良 苏义脑 刘吉臻[3] 顾大钊 匡立春 邹才能[5] Dai Houliang;Su Yinao;Liu Jizhen;Gu Dazhao;Kuang Lichun;Zou Caineng(China National Petroleum Corporation,Beijing 100007,China;Energy and Mining Engineering Division,Chinese Academy of Engineering,Beijing 100088,China;North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;China Energy Investment Corporation,Beijing 100011,China;PetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration&Development,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油天然气集团有限公司 [2]中国工程院能源与矿业工程学部 [3]华北电力大学 [4]国家能源投资集团有限责任公司 [5]中国石油勘探开发研究院

出　　处：《石油科技论坛》2022年第1期1-8,共8页PETROLEUM SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY FORUM

基　　金：中国工程院重大咨询项目“我国碳达峰、碳中和战略及路径研究”课题二“碳达峰、碳中和目标下的能源发展战略研究”(编号:2021-HYZD-16-2)。

摘　　要：碳中和已成全球共识,能源转型是大势所趋。碳中和目标下,我国能源结构将发生颠覆性变化,由目前化石能源占比80%以上,转变为非化石能源占比超80%以上,能源体系也将发生革命性重塑。文章系统分析了我国能源转型面临的产业结构偏重、能源结构偏煤、能源利用效率偏低、碳中和窗口期偏短、新能源关键矿物供应不足等挑战,提出在碳中和目标下,我国能源发展应坚持“立足国情、安全发展,科学创新、务求实效”的方针。能源转型应遵循自主可控和绿色低碳的理念,通过节能与提效双轮驱动、供给与消费两端发力,分“三步走”:(1)减煤控油增气,大力发展新能源;(2)非化石能源加速替代;(3)清洁低碳、安全高效的现代能源体系全面建成。系统实施节能、去碳、创新、提效、应急、支撑、合作七大战略工程,支撑我国如期实现碳达峰、碳中和的目标。Carbon neutrality has become a global consensus,and energy transformation is the general trend.Under the carbon neutrality goal,China’s energy structure will undergo subversive changes,from the current fossil energy accounting for more than 80%to non-fossil energy accounting for more than 80%.The energy system will also undergo a revolutionary reshaping.This paper systematically evaluates the challenges faced by China’s energy transition,such as the emphasis on industrial structure,the more coal portion in energy structure,the low energy utilization efficiency,the short carbon neutrality window period,and the insufficient supply of key minerals for new energy.This paper also provides the policy implications that energy development should adhere to the policy of“national reality consideration,safe development,scientific innovation,and practical results”.Energy transformation should follow the concept of self-control,green and low-carbon,through the two-wheel drive of energy conservation and efficiency improvement,and efforts on both sides of supply and consumption,which is divided into“three steps”:(1)reduce coal,control oil and increase gas,and vigorously develop new energy;(2)accelerate substitution of non-fossil energy;(3)a clean,low-carbon,safe and efficient modern energy system is expected to be fully established.The systematically implementation of seven strategic projects of energy conservation,decarbonization,innovation,efficiency improvement,emergency response,support,and cooperation,will support China to achieve the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality on schedule.

关 键 词：碳中和 能源转型 能源消费 碳排放 安全发展 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济] X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]