Nomogram to predict the risk of endoscopic removal failure with forceps/baskets for treating submandibular stones  

作　　者：Yun Huang Pei-Sheng Liang Yao-Cheng Yang Wei-Xin Cai Qian Tao 

机构地区：[1]Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery,Hospital of Stomatology,Guanghua School of Stomatology,Sun Yat-Sen University,Guangzhou 510055,Guangdong Province,China [2]Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery,Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Stomatology,Guangzhou 510055,Guangdong Province,China

出　　处：《World Journal of Clinical Cases》2022年第9期2710-2720,共11页世界临床病例杂志

基　　金：Supported by Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation;No. 2019A1515012139

摘　　要：BACKGROUND Endoscopic removal with forceps/baskets is favored in treating submandibular stones due to its minimal invasiveness.However,recent studies have found that endoscopic removal failure(ERF)is not unusual,and stones in such cases still need to be removed with other surgical methods.If the risk of ERF can be predicted preoperatively,it could be helpful for surgeons when choosing the appropriate therapy.AIM To develop a predictive nomogram for the risk of ERF when treating submandibular stones based on their preoperative clinical features.METHODS A total of 180 patients with 211 submandibular stones treated from January 2012 to December 2020 were included in the current study.Based on the preoperative clinical features of the stones,independent risk factors for ERF were identified by logistic regression analysis.The stones were then randomly divided into training and testing sets.A nomogram was constructed to predict the risk of ERF using the training set and then validated using both sets.The predictive performance of the nomogram was assessed by calibration curves and the concordance index(Cindex).RESULTS Three independent predictors,location(P=0.040),transverse diameter(P<0.001)and longitudinal diameter(P<0.001)measured on the cone beam computed tomography(CBCT)images of the submandibular stones,were identified and included in the predictive nomogram.Calibration curves of the nomogram showed good agreement between the predicted and observed probabilities in both sets.The C-index in the training set was 0.917(95%CI,0.875-0.959)and that in the testing set was 0.925(95%CI,0.862-0.989).CONCLUSION A nomogram based on the location,transverse and longitudinal diameters on CBCT images of submandibular stones showed satisfactory efficacy in predicting the risk of ERF preoperatively when treating submandibular stones.

关 键 词：Endoscopic removal failure Submandibular stones Cone beam computed tomography Location Diameter NOMOGRAM 

分 类 号：R782.05[医药卫生—口腔医学]