区域能源消费碳排放及优化路径——以山东潍坊为例  

Regional Energy Consumption Carbon Emission and Optimization Path:Taking Weifang City as an Example

作　　者：王鹏[1] 殷凤朝 WANG Peng;YIN Fengzhao(China University of Petroleum(East China),Qingdao 266580,Shandong China;Weifang Institute of Technology,Weifang 262500,Shandong China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东),山东青岛266580 [2]潍坊理工学院,山东潍坊262500

出　　处：《河南科学》2022年第3期449-456,共8页Henan Science

基　　金：山东省社科规划项目(19CPYJ15);潍坊市软科学规划项目(2020RKX025)。

摘　　要：潍坊市作为低碳试点城市,评估和预测城市的碳排放情况、归纳低碳发展规律、合理制定低碳发展政策对城市发展很重要.分析潍坊市能源消费变化趋势,采用IPCC的通用方法对1997—2019年碳排放总量进行分析,基于STIRPAT模型,将潍坊市碳排放分解人口效应、财富效应、产业结构效应、能源消费强度效应、城镇化效应,应用岭回归进行定量分析.研究表明,潍坊市煤炭消费的绝对值虽然在下降,但是碳排放总量增加.在此基础上对潍坊市碳排放进行预测,并根据实际情况提出对策建议.As a low-carbon pilot city,it is important for the development of Weifang to assess and predict carbon emission,summarize the law of low-carbon development,and reasonably formulate low-carbon development policies.The general method of IPCC is used to analyze the total carbon emission from 1997 to 2019,and the energy consumption change trend of Weifang City is obtained. Based on the STIRPAT model,carbon emission of Weifang City is decomposed into population effect,wealth effect,industrial structure effect,energy consumption intensity effect,and urbanization effect,and Ridge Regression is used for quantitative analysis. The results show that although the absolute value of coal consumption in Weifang is decreasing,the total carbon emission is increasing. On this basis,the carbon emission in Weifang is predicted,and countermeasures are proposed according to the actual situation.

关 键 词：碳排放 STIRPAT模型 影响因素 低碳发展 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F426.2[经济管理—产业经济]