我国森林资源木材生产能力预测分析  

Forecast and Analysis of the Timber Production Capacity of China's Forest Resources

作　　者：田明华[1] 杜磊 王芳[1] 马爽 刘丹[1] TIAN Ming-hua;DU Lei;WANG Fang;MA Shuang;LIU Dan(School of Economics and Management,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《林产工业》2022年第4期57-63,共7页China Forest Products Industry

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“‘双循环’新格局下我国木质林产品高质量发展研究”(21BJY196)。

摘　　要：根据1949—2020年我国木材产量数据,运用多项式回归方法,预测了2021—2030年我国木材产量。结果显示,我国可在2025—2029年期间实现木材供给从以国际市场供给为主体到以国内市场供给为主体的转换。利用全国森林资源清查数据,从森林资源消长平衡的角度分析发现,在目前的森林资源条件下,我国已具备主要依靠国内森林资源供给木材的条件,我国未来的森林资源发展也可支撑预测的到2029年以前木材产量增长。Based on China's timber production data from 1949 to 2020,China's timber productions from 2021 to 2030 were predicted with the polynomial regression method.The results showed that China can achieve the conversion of the main timber supply from the international market to the domestic market between 2025 and 2029.The analysis from the perspective of the balance of the growth and decline of forest resources with data of the national forest resources inventory,found that China already has the conditions to rely mainly on domestic forest resources to supply timber under the current forest resource conditions,and China's future development of forest resources can also support the predicted increase in timber production by 2029.

关 键 词：双循环战略 国内木材供给 森林资源 木材生产 预测 

分 类 号：TS6[轻工技术与工程] F326.2[经济管理—产业经济]