2010—2017年全国其他感染性腹泻空间聚集情况及预测  

Spatial aggregation and prediction model of other infectious diarrhea in China from 2010 to 2017

作　　者：李欣[1] 靳金 史雪宁 魏胜男 杨帆[1] 张慧玲 王娟[1] 李卓林[1] LI Xin;JIN Jin;SHI Xue-ning;WEI Sheng-nan;YANG Fan;ZHANG Hui-ling;WANG Juan;LI Zhuo-lin(Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics,School of Public Health,Jilin University,Changchun 130021,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学教研室,长春130021

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2022年第4期376-379,462,共5页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(82073603)。

摘　　要：目的了解2010―2017年全国其他感染性腹泻发病时空分布,并建立其他感染性腹泻疾病发病的预测模型。方法基于2010―2017年中国公共卫生科学数据中心(https://www.phsciencedata.cn/Share)平台报告的其他感染性腹泻数据,进行空间自相关分析并构建自回归移动平均混合(autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)模型。结果全局自相关结果可得2014年、2015年、2016年全国其他感染性腹泻发病呈全局空间正相关,局部自相关结果显示中国2010―2014年和2016―2017年全国均出现“高-高”区域。模型测试结果显示季节乘积ARIMA(0,1,2)(0,1,1)_(12)模型适用于构建模型的预测。ARIMA模型对该病短期预测有较好的效果。结论中国其他感染性腹泻发病总体呈上升趋势,发病在空间分布上有聚集性且有明显的季节性,需加强该病区域防控预防工作。Objective To investigate the spatiotemporal distribution of other infectious diarrhea incidences in China from 2010 to 2017,and to establish the prediction model for the incidence of other infectious diarrhea.Methods Based on other infectious diarrhea data reported by the China Public Health Science Data Center Platform(https://www.phsciencedata.cn/Share)from 2010 to 2017,spatial autocorrelation analysis was performed and autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA)was constructed.Results According to the global autocorrelation results,the incidence of other infectious diarrhea in China in 2014,2015,and 2016 showed a global spatial positive correlation.Local autocorrelation results showed that there were high-high regions in China in 2010-2014 and 2016-2017.The model test results showed that the seasonal ARIMA(0,1,2)(0,1,1)_(12)model was suitable for the prediction of model construction.ARIMA model had a good effect on the short-term prediction of the disease.Conclusions The incidence of other infectious diarrhea in China shows an upward trend,the spatial distribution of the incidence is clustered,and the incidence has obvious seasonality.It is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of this disease in the region.

关 键 词：其他感染性腹泻 空间自相关 发病预测 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]