基于产业细化和多要素约束的白洋淀流域水环境承载力系统动力学模拟与调控  

System Dynamics Simulation and Control Strategy of Water Environment Carrying Capacity in Baiyangdian Basin Based on Industry Refinement and Multifactor Constraint

作　　者：陈文婷 郑明霞[2] 夏青 苏婧[2] 席北斗[1,2] 向维 虞敏达[2] 傅雪梅 CHEN Wen-ting;ZHENG Ming-xia;XIA Qing;SU Jing;XI Bei-dou;XIANG Wei;YU Min-da;FU Xue-mei(School of Water Resources and Environment,China University of Geosciences(Beijing),Beijing 100083,China;State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Simulation and Control of Groundwater Pollution,Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences,Beijing 100012,China;Geological Engineering Department,Qinghai University,Xining 810016,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(北京)水资源与环境学院,北京100083 [2]中国环境科学研究院,国家环境保护地下水污染模拟与控制重点实验室,北京100012 [3]青海大学地质工程系,青海西宁810016

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2022年第2期345-357,共13页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(No.2018ZX07111004)。

摘　　要：为达到水环境承载力和区域经济协调发展的目的,运用系统动力学方法构建了包括17个细化工业类型在内以及受水资源、水污染、水生态多要素约束的白洋淀流域水环境承载力系统动力学模型,通过敏感性分析获得了32个敏感指标,同时结合当地实际发展需求,通过设置6种适用于白洋淀流域的水环境承载力调控情景,得到2017~2035年白洋淀水环境承载力情景模拟与调控结果:(1)如果维持现状,人口和经济的增长会导致各方面对水资源需求增多、水体污染加剧,2020年以后将出现水资源缺口,并且缺口将进一步增大,2021年以后同时会出现水污染加剧的状况。(2)与现状情景相比,单独采取产业结构调整措施或水环境保护措施可使得未来一段时间内白洋淀流域水环境超载情况改善10.78%或10.42%,GDP增加0.22%或0.26%;如果采取更严格的水环境保护措施,改善效果将更好为34.56%,但是GDP会减少5.06%,经济发展受到较大限制;因此,考虑经济和环境协调发展的可持续发展型情景方案更优,GDP增加0.22%时对水环境超载情况改善更为明显为16.23%。(3)综合以上分析,必须统筹规划,大力发展高端高新产业和服务业,合理调减第一和第二产业规模,控制牲畜养殖规模,抑制纺织业、造纸和纸制品业等高耗水、重污染产业发展规模并采用清洁生产技术对其进行提升和改造,建立多元补水机制,保证淀区水位,减少地下水开采,完善流域水污染治理设施,提高水资源利用率和污水回用率,同时恢复森林和湿地,高标准开展流域污染治理,以使经济、人口和环境协调发展。In order to coordinate the development between water environment carrying capacity and regional economy, the system dynamics method(SD) was used to model the water environment carrying capacity in Baiyangdian Basin which includes 17 refined industrial industries and is constrained by multiple factors of water resources, water pollution and water ecology. Thirty-two sensitive indicators were obtained from sensitivity analysis of SD. Taking local practical development demand into consideration, 6 control scenarios which are applicable to the carrying capacity of water environment in Baiyangdian Basin were set, and the simulation along with the regulation results of water environment carrying capacity from 2017 to 2035 in Baiyangdian Basin were obtained:(1) If the present status is maintained, population and economic growth will arouse increasing demand for water resources and bring more water pollutants. Consequently, there will be a water resource gap which may further increase after 2020 and the water pollution will be worsen after 2021.(2)Compared with the current scenario, industrial structure adjustment or water environment protection could improve the overload of water environment in Baiyangdian Basin by 10.78% or 10.42% and increase the GDP by 0.22% or 0.26% in the future. However, the sustainable development scenario which considers the coordinated development of economy and environment is more favorable. When the GDP increases by 0.22%, the improvement of the water environment overload situation could reach 16.23%, which means the improvement effect is more distinct. If more stringent water environment protection measures are taken, the improvement effect may reach 34.56%, but the GDP will decrease by 5.06%, and the economic development will be greatly restricted.(3)Based on the above analysis, the overall planning must be conducted. High-end, high-tech and service industries should be vigorously developed, the scale of primary and secondary industries should be rationally reduced, and the scale of livesto

关 键 词：白洋淀流域 水环境承载力综合系统 系统动力学模型 产业细化 多要素约束 情景调控 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]