从人口数量红利到人口质量红利——基于143个国家面板数据的实证分析  

From the Demographic Dividend to the Human Capital Dividend:An Empirical Analysis Based on the Panel Data from 143 Countries and Regions

作　　者：丁小浩 高文娟 黄依梵 Ding Xiaohao;Gao Wenjuan;Huang Yifan(the Institute of Economics of Education(Key Research Institute in University),Peking University,Beijing 100871;the School of Humanities and Social Sciences(School of Public Administration),Beihang University,Beijing 100191;the Center for Higher Education Development(Key Research Institute in University),Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005)

机构地区：[1]教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地北京大学教育经济研究所,北京100871 [2]北京航空航天大学人文社会科学学院(公共管理学院),北京100191 [3]教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地厦门大学高等教育发展研究中心,厦门361005

出　　处：《教育研究》2022年第3期138-148,共11页Educational Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金2020年度社科学术社团主题学术活动资助学术研究类项目“教育在全面建设小康社会中的战略作用”(项目编号:20STA018)的研究成果。

摘　　要：本文利用143个国家和地区的相关数据,测算劳动力数量和劳动力质量对经济发展数量(传统GDP)和经济发展质量(绿色GDP)的影响。实证结果显示:第一,与劳动力数量相比,劳动力质量对经济发展的数量和质量的影响均更大;第二,与经济发展的数量相比,可持续高质量的经济发展对劳动力质量的敏感程度更高;第三,与低经济发展水平的国家相比,经济发展水平越高的国家或地区对劳动力质量的依赖程度越高。劳动年龄人口数量优势对经济增长的贡献随经济发展水平的提高逐渐减弱,而人口质量红利则能够为经济发展提供持久而稳定的动力。面对劳动年龄人口持续下降的挑战,通过教育提高劳动者质量,是“十四五”期间构建经济发展的战略选择。This study,based on the data from a total of 143 countries and regions,aims to explore the effect of labor quantity and labor quality on the quantity of economic growth(traditional GDP)and the quality of economic growth(green GDP).The results are as follows:Labor quality has a greater effect on both the quantity and the quality of economic growth than labor quantity;sustainable and high-quality economic growth is more sensitive to labor quality than quantity-based economic growth;and the countries or regions at a higher level of economic growth are more dependent on labor quality than those with a lower level of economic growth.This reveals that the demographic dividend tends to make fewer contributions to economic growth than the human capital dividend,while the human capital dividend can provide a lasting and stable driving force for economic growth.Facing the challenge of the decline in labor quantity,we need to raise labor quality through education,which is a strategic choice for China in the development of economy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period.

关 键 词：劳动力数量 劳动力质量 人力资本 经济发展 分位数回归 

分 类 号：C924[社会学—人口学] F113F249.1