巨型古滑坡的稳定性评价及发展趋势分析  

Stability Evaluation and Development Trend Analysis of Giant Ancient Landslide

作　　者：宁波[1] 刘玉健 王安东[3] NING Bo;LIU Yujian;WANG Andong(School of Surveying and Testing,Shaanxi Railway Institute,1 East-Zhanbei Street,Weinan 714000,China;China Railway 14th Bureau Group 2nd Engineering Co Ltd,71 West-Yingtaoyuan Road,Tai’an 271000,China;School of Tiecheng Innovation,Shaanxi Railway Institute,1 East-Zhanbei Street,Weinan 714000,China)

机构地区：[1]陕西铁路工程职业技术学院测绘与检测学院,陕西省渭南市714000 [2]中铁十四局集团第二工程有限公司,山东省泰安市271000 [3]陕西铁路工程职业技术学院铁成创新学院,陕西省渭南市714000

出　　处：《大地测量与地球动力学》2022年第5期515-519,共5页Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics

基　　金：陕西铁路工程职业技术学院中青年科技创新人才计划(KJRC201807);陕西省渭南市科研计划(2016KYJ-1-3)。

摘　　要：利用尖点突变模型进行滑坡稳定性评价,再以集合经验模态分解、GM(1,1)模型和支持向量机等方法为基础,构建滑坡变形预测模型。以变电站滑坡为例进行分析,结果表明,各监测点的突变特征值均大于0,即处于稳定状态;所得变形预测结果的平均相对误差均较小,验证了本文预测模型的有效性;通过外推预测,发现滑坡变形仍会进一步增加,稳定性变差。We use the cusp catastrophe model to evaluate the stability of landslide.Then we construct the combined landslide prediction model based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition,GM(1,1)model and support vector machine.The analysis of Biandianzhan landslide shows that the catastrophe characteristic values of each monitoring point are greater than 0,that is,they are in a stable state.The average relative error of the prediction results is small,which verifies the applicability of the prediction model.Through extrapolation prediction,the landslide deformation will be further increased and the stability will get worse.

关 键 词：滑坡 尖点突变理论 稳定性评价 支持向量机 变形预测 

分 类 号：P258[天文地球—测绘科学与技术]