考虑民众心理感知的应急物资多阶段分配模型  

A Multi-Stage Distribution Model of Emergency Supplies Considering People's Psychological Perception

作　　者：温国锋[1] 朱旭东 WEN Guo-feng;ZHU Xu-dong(Shandong Technology and Business University,Yantai 264005,China)

机构地区：[1]山东工商学院管理科学与工程学院,山东烟台264005

出　　处：《山东工商学院学报》2022年第2期33-44,共12页Journal of Shandong Technology and Business University

基　　金：山东省人民政府决策咨询重点项目/山东省社会科学规划重点招标项目“山东应急管理基础能力建设研究”(19BZBJ12)。

摘　　要：在突发公共卫生事件应急响应过程中,应急物资供给不足及分配不合理,都会导致民众的心理恐慌、嫉妒感上升,进一步加重疫情的影响,因此建立考虑民众心理感知的应急物资多阶段分配模型非常必要。首先,考虑不同种类物资需求与供给的时间不对称性,将物资需求与物资供给整合至同一个物资分配决策框架;其次,基于前景理论和亚当斯公平理论,综合考虑疫区民众的时间风险感知、物资满足率以及公平感知,建立了双目标动态分配模型;最后,引入Pareto解集设计了物资分配决策模型的求解算法,并通过算例验证了模型的有效性。结果表明:考虑民众心理感知的物资分配模型能够有效缓解应急物资局部冗余或短缺问题,并提高物资动态多阶段分配决策的公平性与有效性。In the process of emergency response to public health emergencies,insufficient supply of emergency supplies and unreasonable distribution of emergency supplies will lead to increased psychological panic and jealousy of the people,and further aggravate the impact of the epidemic.Therefore,establish a multi-stage distribution model of emergency supplies that takes into account the psychological perception of the people is very necessary.First,consider the time asymmetry of different types of material demand and supply,and integrate material demand and material supply into the same material distribution decision-making framework;Secondly,based on prospect theory and Adams fairness theory,comprehensively considering the time risk perception,material satisfaction rate and fairness perception of people in the epidemic area,a dual-objective dynamic allocation model was established;Finally,the Pareto solution set is introduced to design the solution algorithm of the material distribution decision model,and the effectiveness of the model is verified through a calculation example.The results show that the material distribution model that takes into account the psychological perception of the people can effectively alleviate the local redundancy or shortage of emergency materials,and improve the fairness and effectiveness of the dynamic multi-stage distribution decision-making of materials.

关 键 词：突发公共卫生事件 应急物资分配 风险感知 公平感知 前景理论 

分 类 号：F253[经济管理—国民经济] D632.1[政治法律—政治学]