基于Fisher判别模型的煤层底板突水水源预测  

Prediction of water inrush source of coal seam floor based on Fisher discriminant model

作　　者：段李宏 戴磊 张金陵 DUAN Lihong;DAI Lei;ZHANG Jinling(Yongcheng Coal Holdings Group Co.,Ltd.,Henan Energy and Chemical Industry Group Co.,Ltd.,Yongcheng 476600,China)

机构地区：[1]河南能源化工集团永城煤电控股集团有限公司,河南永城476600

出　　处：《工矿自动化》2022年第4期128-134,共7页Journal Of Mine Automation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(U1710253)。

摘　　要：针对传统矿井突水水源判别方法对矿井煤层底板突水水源判别准确率低的问题,以城郊煤矿二_(2)煤层为例,建立了Fisher矿井底板突水水源判别分析模型。城郊煤矿二_(2)煤层具有突水威胁的含水层分别为煤系砂岩含水层和底板太原组岩溶裂隙含水层,考虑到水化学离子的重要性及数据的有效性,采用煤层底板有突水威胁的砂岩水、太灰水和混合水3类水样分析资料作为样本,选取Ca^(2+),Mg^(2+),Na^(+)+K^(+),HCO_(3)^(-),Cl^(-),SO_(4)^(2-)这6种离子含量和矿化度作为矿井突水水源判别分析的变量。利用SPSS软件求得2个典型Fisher判别函数(第1和第2判别函数),计算出典型判别函数在3类水样类别的中心值,通过比较待判水样函数值与这3类水样类别的中心值距离即可判别样本归属哪一类别。利用回代估计法对Fisher矿井底板突水水源判别分析模型进行检验,结果表明:该模型的判别正确率达93.3%,判别结果可信度高。利用该模型对城郊煤矿二_(2)煤层10个已知水样进行分类,得出10个水样的判别结果与实际情况吻合,判别正确率为100%。In order to solve the problems of low accuracy mine water inrush source discriminant method for mine floor water inrush source discrimination,taking the second level coal seam of suburban coal mine as an example,the Fisher mine floor water inrush source discriminant model is established.The aquifers with the threat of water inrush in the second level coal seam of suburban coal mine are the coal-measure sandstone aquifer and the karst fractured aquifer of the Taiyuan Formation in the floor.Considering the importance of hydrochemical ions and the validity of the data,three kinds of water quality analysis data of sandstone water,limestone water and mixed water with water inrush threat in the coal seam floor are used as samples.The content and mineralization of six kinds of ions,Ca^(2+),Mg^(2+),Na^(+)+K^(+),HCO_(3)^(-),Cl^(-) and SO_(4)^(2-),are selected as the discriminant analysis variables for the identification of mine inrush water sources.Two typical Fisher discriminant functions(the first and the second discriminant functions)are obtained by SPSS software.The central values of the typical discriminant functions in the three water quality groups are calculated.By comparing the distance between the function values of the water samples to be discriminated and the central values of the three water quality groups,it is able to determine which group the samples belong to.The back substitution estimation method is used to test the Fisher mine floor water inrush source discriminant model.The results show that the discriminant accuracy rate of the model is 93.3%,and the discriminant results are highly reliable.The model is used to classify 10 known water samples in the second level of suburban coal mine.The results show that the discriminant effect of 10 water samples is consistent with the actual situation,and the discriminant accuracy rate is 100%.

关 键 词：矿井突水水源判别 底板突水 矿井突水水样类型 FISHER线性判别 突水水源预测 回代估计法 

分 类 号：TD745[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]